{"id":1097,"date":"2026-07-29T11:03:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T11:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=1097"},"modified":"2026-07-29T11:03:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T11:03:32","slug":"insiders-knew-ai-models-would-escape-the-lab-and-wreak-havoc-former-openai-board-member-confesses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=1097","title":{"rendered":"Insiders knew AI models would escape the lab and wreak havoc, former OpenAI board member confesses"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\u27a1\ufe0f Did someone forward you this email?<\/strong> If you would like to receive this information directly, every morning before the markets open in New York, <\/strong>sign up here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Join us Nov. 16\u201317 for the Fortune 500 Innovation Forum in Detroit,<\/strong> where we\u2019ll gather to ask: What will the next century of American ingenuity require? Confirmed speakers include CEOs from Kraft Heinz, Oracle, Chipotle, Ulta Beauty, Optum, Oscar Health, Corning, Trane Technologies, Edward Jones, and the New York Stock\u202fExchange. \u202fApply to attend here.<\/p>\n

ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

Insiders knew that one day advanced AI models would escape the lab and wreak havoc<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

There\u2019s an open secret among AI developers: An incident like the one in which two OpenAI models escaped from a supposedly secure environment and hacked a rival AI company has been expected for a long time, and the best scientists and engineers in the world still don\u2019t know how to prevent it, <\/span>writes Helen Toner, a former OpenAI board member<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

None of the current policies aimed at managing risks from frontier models would have mandated that the public \u2014 or even a government entity \u2014 be alerted. This lays bare an enormous blind spot in current policy approaches to managing risks for increasingly advanced AI systems. Allowing the government to review new model releases won\u2019t fix the problem because that still ignores the most advanced, unreleased AI systems inside AI companies. As last week\u2019s incident shows, these internally deployed AI systems can pose serious risks \u2014 even for third parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

The solution: Draw inspiration from other industries where activity inside the industry is itself risky. Biological labs working with deadly pathogens, finance companies trading billions of dollars, and chemical plants handling toxic chemicals all face oversight of their internal operations, not just their external products.<\/span><\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

I was Spotify\u2019s first analytics lead. Here is what VCs get wrong about data<\/span> – Henrik Landgren<\/span><\/p>\n

Gen Z workers are sneaking out of the office to nap and cry\u2014anywhere secluded away from the desk will do, including Zara\u2019s fitting room<\/span> – Orianna Rosa Royle<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018We\u2019re on top of every restock\u2019: This 24-year-old has made over $4 million off his subscription-based reselling community<\/span> – Joshua Hong<\/span><\/p>\n

Elon Musk said money doesn\u2019t matter. Then he rolled out X Money and admitted he\u2019s a \u2018former trillionaire\u2019<\/span> – Catherina Gioino<\/span><\/p>\n

Jamie Dimon says his stockbroker father taught him to invest with a \u2018brutally hard\u2019 childhood game<\/span> – Sarah Glodek<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump broke his promise to lower \u2014 and eliminate \u2014 the national debt. A top investor thinks he\u2019s the \u2018worst-spending president in history\u2019<\/span> – Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez<\/span><\/p>\n

THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

Semiconductor stocks continue brutal selloff after traders see 557% profit growth at SK Hynix and decide it isn\u2019t good enough<\/b><\/h2>\n

To give you an idea of how brutal the rout against chipmaker stocks in Asia has been, consider that over the last month South Korea\u2019s KOSPI index is down 32.54%. The index is dominated by two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, which both make chips. SK Hynix lost 9.61% today after reporting 557% growth in Q2 operating profit. That\u2019s not a typo. Five-hundred and fifty-seven percent profit was not enough for traders, who were expecting more!<\/span><\/p>\n

Korea is in full-blown crisis mode right now. The <\/span>government\u2019s finance minister apologized<\/span> to the public for allowing the trade of single-stock leveraged ETFs, which have magnified the losses of speculators, many of whom were unsophisticated retail investors who perhaps did not understand the risks they were betting on. Officials met at 6 p.m. local time to discuss policy reforms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225, also a tech-heavy market, was down 1.49%. Globally, the iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors ETF is down 22% over the last month.<\/span><\/p>\n

The price of oil<\/b> rose three dollars to $86 per barrel of Brent crude this morning on news that <\/span>Iran had sent 30 drones against U.S. positions<\/span> and the U.S. had retaliated by striking Iranian proxy groups in Iraq. The peace talks are still going on, however.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were up 0.23% this morning. The index ticked up 0.21% yesterday.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down 0.25% in early trading, and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was up 0.09% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was down 5.98% today. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down 1.49%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was up 1.19%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was up 0.67%.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Brent crude<\/b> rose to $86 per barrel this morning from a low of $83 yesterday.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/b> was at $64K.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    AI<\/h3>\n

    Wall Street is starting to see hyperscaler capex as more of a problem than a solution<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Here\u2019s a simple explanation for why tech stocks have been so rattled recently. Analysts keep adjusting upward their estimates of what AI hyperscalers will spend on capex in the future, and that increased spend is driving down free cash flow estimates. Investors don\u2019t like it when they see companies deliberately reducing their profits, hence all the selling.<\/span><\/p>\n

    This chart from Apollo Global Management\u2019s Torsten Sl\u00f8k illustrates the phenom:<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    The other problem, according to Wells Fargo\u2019s Ohsung Kwon, is that \u201cthe market is concerned around the risk of eventual capex <\/span>cuts<\/span><\/i> if ROI isn’t there,\u201d he said in an email (emphasis added).<\/span><\/p>\n

    Given that both semiconductor chip companies and AI hyperscalers are essentially making the same bet\u2014that AI will drive revenues and profits\u2014you can see why investors might be nervous at any sign that those profits are being pushed further into the future. <\/span><\/p>\n

    THE FED<\/h3>\n

    Does Fed chair Warsh have a massive surprise up his sleeve?<\/b><\/h2>\n

    If the Fed raises U.S. interest rates today, it will be a huge shock. 70% of positions in Fed futures are betting that Chairman Kevin Warsh keeps the rate on hold at the 3.5% level. Since 1994, the Fed has never raised rates if more than 60% of speculators <\/span>on CME Fedwatch<\/span> believe the \u201chold\u201d position is priced in.<\/span> \u201cA hike this week would be a) unprecedented, b) pull forward 2026 hikes from ~45bps to ~60bps, & c) establish Warsh credibility on independence and inflation,\u201d Mark Cabana <\/span>et al<\/span><\/i> at Bank of America said in an email yesterday.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    However, 70% is substantially below the 90%-plus level that we usually see on the day of a FOMC meeting. A hike could still happen, Cabana says: \u201cMarket won’t rule out hike risk; neither will we.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    Deutsche Bank\u2019s Jim Reid put it this way: \u201cThis is the most uncertain that the market has been on whether the Fed will change rates going into a meeting since December 2018.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    Lord of the Dings:<\/b> Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management Paul Donovan has made no secret of the fact that he thinks Warsh\u2019s policy of giving less guidance on the future direction of the Fed is a mistake. But he was particularly harsh on Warsh in his email to clients this morning, in which he compared Warsh to Gollum from Lord of the Rings:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • \u201cFed Chair Warsh [is] refusing to offer markets a framework within which to consider policy,\u201d Donovan said. \u201cDoes the Fed care about inflation expectations in a world of social media hysteria? What second-round inflation effects matter? \u2026 Warsh is channeling Gollum and crooning \u2018my precious\u2019 over the Fed\u2019s framework, risking volatility and higher risk premiums in markets.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      STOCKS ON STEROIDS<\/h3>\n

      Late-stage leverage has arrived, Pimco says<\/b><\/h2>\n

      Traders are increasingly leveraged\u2014meaning they have borrowed money to magnify both their potential gains and losses\u2014and it\u2019s a symptom of a market in a \u201clate cycle,\u201d <\/span>according to Pimco\u2019s Lotfi Karoui<\/span>. \u201cWe\u2019re observing a familiar feature of late-cycle markets.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      Don\u2019t panic (yet), he says. \u201cSecurities margin balances \u2013 a direct measure of leverage employed by equity investors \u2013 have picked up meaningfully in recent years. As a share of total equity market capitalization, these balances remain below prior cyclical peaks, but the pace of increase over the past two years is notable.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/div>\n

      <\/span><\/p>\n

      CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

      Blame the midterms for the stock market being full of grouches<\/b><\/h2>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/div>\n

      <\/span><\/p>\n

      Q2 earnings results have been \u201cexceptionally strong so far,\u201d according to Deutsche Bank.\u00a0 \u201cRoughly a third of the way through reporting, nearly 90% of companies have beaten expectations, with aggregate earnings coming in around 10% above consensus,\u201d the bank\u2019s Jim Reid said in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n

      But the market doesn\u2019t seem to be impressed. The S&P 500 remains below its all-time high. This chart shows that stocks often do this in a year where there are midterm elections, Reid says:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201cThe year before U.S. midterms has historically been a subdued one for the S&P 500, with equities often experiencing a summer dip ahead of the vote. However, a couple of months after the election the market tends to regain its mojo, and by nine months later it has never been lower in any of the 20 midterm cycles since WWII.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      NUMBER OF THE DAY: SEC HATERS<\/h3>\n

      99%<\/b><\/h2>\n

      The percentage of investors who are opposed to the SEC\u2019s proposal that publicly traded companies be allowed to report earnings semi-annually instead of quarterly. <\/span>This tracker<\/span> has counted 108,325 submissions from the public on the issue, of which only 255 support the proposal.<\/span><\/p>\n

      THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

      Mark Zuckerberg says US should not ban Chinese AI<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

      Why America\u2019s super rich have embraced the appeal of British soccer teams<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

      Scoop: Second OpenAI agent incident tied to cybersecurity testing benchmark<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

      A Backlash Against Anthropic Is Brewing in Silicon Valley<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

      Couple Stalked by eBay Settle for $56 Million<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

      NYC lawyer caught canoodling with his much-younger colleague in Central Park placed on leave: report<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n

      ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

      Shopify CEO endorses removing votes from anyone who doesn\u2019t pay tax<\/b><\/h2>\n

      Shopify CEO Tobias L\u00fctke, whose company commands a market capitalization near $154 billion, told his social media followers this week that a tax-tiered voting system\u2014one that would strip voting rights from anyone who pays no income tax\u2014would be a \u201cgood system.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      The proposal would invert the founding American principle of \u201cno taxation without representation\u201d into something closer to \u201cno representation without taxation.\u201d Most Americans thought this debate was settled more than a century ago, <\/span>Fortune\u2019s <\/span><\/i>Nick Lichtenberg reports<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Under this proposed system, the disenfranchised bloc would be enormous. It would encompass all retirees living on Social Security and pension income, students, caregivers, disabled Americans, and millions of low-wage workers who owe no net federal income tax after deductions and credits. Meanwhile, a small population of high earners would receive up to five votes each\u2014a fivefold multiplier on political power concentrated in the hands of people already holding disproportionate economic power. What could possibly go wrong?<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      #Insiders #knew #models #escape #lab #wreak #havoc #OpenAI #board #member #confesses<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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