A SpaceX rocket crashed into the moon at 2:00 a.m. Wednesday, leaving a massive crater and another piece of \u201cspace junk\u201d on its surface. But that will only be the second-biggest dump of SpaceX\u2019s week.<\/p>\n
\n
On Thursday, nearly a billion shares of SpaceX, held by early employees and pre-IPO investors, will finally break free from their lockups. The shares, totaling around $100 billion at current prices, are more of a supply shock than the entire IPO itself. And while analysts worry that it will cheapen the stock\u2014or, as Morgan Stanley suggests, provide an opportunity \u201cto gain exposure to a potential generational compounder\u201d\u2014that SpaceX avoided the worst of this moment by quietly lining up its buyers before the lockup clock even started running.<\/p>\n
The natural pressure<\/h2>\n
Every IPO eventually meets this moment, Luria cautioned. Early employees might believe wholeheartedly in the company, but after spending decades with most of their wealth tied up in a single stock, they may want to diversify\u2014buy a house, maybe.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That transfer from private-company insiders to public-market investors is the \u201cnatural course of business,\u201d he said\u2014but, by definition, it puts pressure on the share price as fresh supply enters the market.<\/p>\n
The bailout<\/h2>\n
Within 25 days of listing, four index providers\u2014CRSP, FTSE Russell, MSCI and Nasdaq\u2014added the stock within 25 days of listing, forcing passive funds inside millions of 401(k)s to buy in. While it\u2019s unclear how much SpaceX stock passive funds took on, JPMorgan estimates that the Nasdaq inclusion alone transferred $4 billion of SpaceX into passive accounts. Luria calls the accelerated path into the indexes \u201ca little bit of a bailout.\u201d<\/p>\n
Without it, he said, SpaceX would face the lockup expiration with \u201cthe supply from lockups\u201d but none of the demand generated by index funds or the arbitrage traders buying ahead of them. Instead, the company secured \u201cvery substantial demand from index inclusion\u201d at precisely a time when \u201cthere\u2019s a lot of supply coming.\u201d<\/p>\n
It was \u201cvery important,\u201d Luria added, that SpaceX and its bankers negotiated the accelerated path into the indexes before the IPO. The arrangement effectively spread out the buying \u2014 rather than one dramatic surge \u2014 meaning the selling at lockup expiration has a cushion it otherwise wouldn\u2019t have had.<\/p>\n
How lucrative that cushion was for the people who saw it coming: two trading teams at the hedge fund Millennium made about $3.6 billion in June from these so-called \u201cindex-rebalancing trades.\u201d<\/p>\n
Thursday<\/h2>\n
Luria said he doesn\u2019t think every employee or early investor will race for the exits Thursday. Investment banks, he said, often favor shareholders they expect to hold for years, and if an investor jockeys for access to pre-IPO shares and then \u201cbehaves badly,\u201d they could get shut out of future IPOs. Plus, it\u2019s hard to think of more loyal followers of the Elon cause than the ones who spent their careers building the company.<\/p>\n
But ultimately, stock-picking is less about what you believe in the present than what you think other investors will believe about the future. And Tuesday\u2019s earnings represented Musk\u2019s last chance to project a positive future before Thursday\u2019s selling event, with Musk telling investors that SpaceX could exit the year at a staggering $100 billion revenue run rate. But the report also exposed how much of that future now depends on enormous spending on artificial intelligence\u2014$15 billion in a single quarter\u2014while raising new doubts about whether Starlink is beginning to slow.<\/p>\n
The stock fell another 9% on Wednesday, extending a brutal summer that has erased half of its value since the IPO. Analysts across Wall Street doubled down anyway, with JP Morgan even lifting its price target from $220 to $240.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou never bet against Elon,\u201d Luria said, calling it a \u201ctruism in the investing community\u201d after years in which investors lost enormous sums betting against Tesla.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#billion #SpaceX #shares #unlock #Thursday #Wall #Street #isnt #worried #bet #Elon<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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<\/p>\n