Iran\u2019s hardline demand for a Strait of Hormuz fee system would generate close to $20 billion a year, but such astronomical tolls won\u2019t be accepted by the U.S. or Iran\u2019s Gulf neighbors, geopolitical and energy analysts say.<\/p>\n
\n
That means the ongoing stalemate will drag on indefinitely or Iran will eventually accept a lesser, but still substantial, financial payout. Either way, the Middle East and, as a result, global energy markets are forever changed.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe strait is never going to go back to its\u00a0pre-war status quo,\u201d said Gregory Brew,\u00a0senior analyst for Iran and energy with the Eurasia Group. \u201cThere\u2019s going to be a permanently recognized Iranian role in managing the waterway. It\u2019s going to be jointly managed with Oman.\u201d<\/p>\n
But that doesn\u2019t mean Iran gets everything it wants. Iran\u2019s calls for a 5% or 7% service fee per barrel of oil\u2014essentially a mafia-style protection racket\u2014are \u201cpure extortion,\u201d said Bob McNally, former White House energy advisor under George W. Bush and founder of the Rapidan Energy Group.<\/p>\n
Depending on the exact oil price and volumes, a 5% fee per barrel would create an annual windfall for Iran anywhere from $18 billion to $25 billion\u2014and trigger inflationary cost hikes globally. And that\u2019s only counting crude oil, not liquefied natural gas, petrochemicals, or other cargoes that rely on the strait. Also, giving Iran fee-collection authority would allow the regime to escalate at any time, denying maritime access, for example, to any country that hosts a U.S. military base. \u201cThe toll is not just the financial cost itself; it\u2019s what else Iran does with that level of authority over who goes in and who goes out,\u201d\u00a0McNally said.<\/p>\n
That said, \u201cI don\u2019t think the Iranians are really determined to impose heavy tolls,\u201d McNally told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cThey know they won\u2019t be allowed to do that. They\u2019re holding onto tolls right now because they know that\u2019s the best leverage they have for the final deal, whenever it comes, with nukes and sanctions relief and everything.\u201d<\/p>\nOf course, it\u2019s not that simple either, he said. \u201cIran is not going to cede until it gets everything else it wants, and President Trump is unwilling to give that. Hence, we\u2019re in this prolonged stalemate so long as the oil market is drinking the Kool-Aid and believing everything\u2019s going to be fine, and crude oil prices stay below $100.\u201d<\/p>\n
Indeed, the global benchmark for oil futures was trading just below $90 per barrel late on Tuesday\u2014quite high, but well below the war\u2019s late-April peak of $124.<\/p>\n
The reality is that a tolling system is illegal under international maritime law, and insurance associations have warned that coverage would be terminated for vessels going through any tolling system, Brew said. \u201cIran is conscious of the fact that if they squeeze the strait too hard, no one is going to want to use the\u00a0strait, and its value\u2014both as a strategic asset and as a potential source of revenue\u2014is going to decline precipitously.\u201d<\/p>\n
Instead, Brew believes an ultimate compromise would mean Iran making an illusory comparison to the Strait of Malacca where there is a smaller, voluntary fee system for services rendered and maintenance.<\/p>\n
Instead of a tolling booth setup, such a system could involve Iran\u2019s oil-producing neighbors of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) reluctantly forking over \u201cvoluntary\u201d payments to Iran and, to a lesser extent, to Oman for managing the strait.<\/p>\n
\u201cAn unattractive deal with\u00a0Iran is the best of limited bad options,\u201d Brew said. \u201cThe Iranians won\u2019t accept a nominal, minor amount. They\u2019ll want something more substantial and the GCC will likely have to deliver them what they want.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt also\u00a0likely won\u2019t be entirely public. This may involve a degree of payments to Iran to ensure security in the strait, but which are not acknowledged\u00a0publicly.\u201d<\/p>\n
Eyeing next steps<\/h2>\n
Time is of the essence for the U.S. as the November midterm elections approach and as, this week, the nation\u2019s Strategic Petroleum Reserve dips below 300 million barrels for the first time since January 1983.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Iran\u2019s economy continues to spiral, but the Iranian hardliners in charge have shown a willingness to suffer through prolonged downturns, said Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe U.S. is looking for an off ramp, but Iran doesn\u2019t want to give that off ramp,\u201d Pickering said. \u201cTheir demands have ratcheted up, while the U.S. is trying to ratchet down. You don\u2019t even hear a lot about the nuclear stuff right now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran has rejected the latest U.S. offers, demanding a return to the June interim deal and more. President Trump is now focused on the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil to exert more financial pressure\u2014and avoiding a military escalation\u2014while helping move anywhere from 5 million barrels a day to 8 million barrels daily through the strait closer to Oman. That\u2019s a lot of oil, but nowhere near the nearly 20 million barrels that once routinely moved through it each day.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is moving more than 4 million barrels through the Red Sea, even if it means going through the Red Sea and around Africa to avoid Yemeni attacks, and China is still buying much less oil. All of these actions have kept oil prices from further skyrocketing.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut we can\u2019t do this indefinitely, and that\u2019s the Iranians\u2019 leverage. This is unsustainable,\u201d Pickering said. \u201cMaybe it\u2019s like bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly. But right now, we don\u2019t have a catalyst for a conclusion. The Iranians don\u2019t want one, and the U.S. isn\u2019t going to give up on the things that it cares about yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
The situation may have to worsen before it improves, he said. And China already is starting to slowly hike up its imports.<\/p>\n
Brew, of the Eurasia Group, is more optimistic on reaching an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks. But that\u2019s still just a stopgap. A second phase of negotiations would include a Hormuz fee structure, nuclear negotiations, and deeper sanctions removals.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iranians see themselves as being in the stronger negotiating position,\u201d Brew said. \u201cThey\u2019re haggling, and they\u2019re negotiating with an eye to the next round of negotiations.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cSo, none of these questions are going to be resolved in the near\u00a0term.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#Iran #protection #toll #Strait #Hormuz #20B #annual #haul #pipe #dream<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Iran\u2019s hardline demand for a S… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4167,2184,4166,273,503,4168,1064,456,4169,3724,1618,2224,1478],"class_list":["post-2115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-20b","tag-annual","tag-crude-oil","tag-donald-trump","tag-dream","tag-haul","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-pipe","tag-protection","tag-strait","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-toll"],"yoast_head":"\n
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