{"id":2161,"date":"2026-08-12T20:20:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=2161"},"modified":"2026-08-12T20:20:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:20:20","slug":"competing-social-security-cola-estimates-released-after-fresh-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=2161","title":{"rendered":"Competing Social Security COLA estimates released after fresh inflation data"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Cheryl Casone analyzes the July CPI inflation report, which came in line with expectations. She highlighted a drop in energy and gasoline prices as stock futures rally and the Labor Department releases the fresh economic data.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Social Security beneficiaries are still expected to see a larger cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027 than they did this year, though it has decreased as inflation eased in July.<\/p>\n
By law, the annual Social Security COLA is calculated using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for the months of July, August and September based on a variant of the dataset known as CPI-W. The COLA boosts beneficiaries’ payments to account for a rise in the cost of living, and the COLA for 2026 amounted to a 2.8% increase.<\/p>\n
The BLS released the July CPI inflation data Wednesday that showed consumer prices were up 3.4% from a year ago. That’s down from a 3.5% annual reading in June.<\/p>\n
Several groups have released estimates for the 2027 COLA based on the July data and estimates for the next two months of data, which have the COLA landing in a range from 3.2% to 3.6%.<\/p>\n
INFLATION COOLED IN JULY BUT REMAINED ELEVATED AS FED WEIGHS RATE HIKES<\/strong><\/p>\n
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released the lowest of those estimates, projecting the COLA will ultimately be at 3.2% when the final data is released this fall. It noted in its analysis that CPI-W was flat in July and is up 3.4% over the last year.<\/p>\n
“High COLAs can provide helpful near-term support to seniors, but also impose significant costs for a Social Security retirement fund that is just six years from insolvency,” CRFB said, adding that automatic benefit cuts of 22% would occur if the fund is depleted.<\/p>\n
CRFB has proposed reforms to COLAs aimed at helping to shore up Social Security’s solvency, including a COLA cap for high-income beneficiaries as well as a flat rate COLA.<\/p>\n
ONE TYPE OF SOCIAL SECURITY ADJUSTMENT COULD CUT THE 75-YEAR SHORTFALL IN HALF<\/strong><\/p>\n
Social Security’s 2027 COLA is estimated at between 3.2% and 3.6%, with about two months left until the official COLA is finalized.<\/span> (Getty Images\/stock)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The AARP, which advocates for policies it views as beneficial to people over the age of 50, estimates that the 2027 COLA will be 3.5% in its first-ever COLA estimate to be released before the third-quarter inflation reports come out.<\/p>\n
“The sooner that we can give them reliable information as to how much their benefits might [increase next year], the sooner they can start planning,” AARP VP for Financial Security Rich Johnson said.<\/p>\n
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how food and, especially, energy prices will play out over the next two months. This is not set in stone.”<\/p>\n
NEW PROPOSAL WOULD CAP SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS AT $100K FOR WEALTHY COUPLES<\/strong><\/p>\n
A woman walks into a Social Security office in Houston, Texas, July 13, 2022.<\/span> (Mark Felix\/The Washington Post \/ Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) released an estimate that puts the 2027 COLA at 3.6%, which would represent an increase of 0.8 percentage points when compared with the 2026 COLA.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The TSCL analysis noted that if the estimated COLA were to take effect today, it would amount to an increase of $69.75 in average benefits, rising to $2,007.28 from $1,937.53.<\/p>\n
TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said in a statement that, “One of the wildcards in this year’s forecast has been inflation’s volatility. It started the year at 2.2%, then surged to 4.4% by May before falling back to 3.5% in June.”<\/p>\n
“That kind of instability can throw off forecasts, but our model is designed to avoid chasing every spike and dip, which has kept our predictions on a relatively steady course,” Benton added.<\/p>\n
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE<\/strong><\/p>\n
The official 2027 COLA will be announced Oct. 14 after the BLS release of September CPI inflation data. It will take effect starting with payments to beneficiaries in January.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Cheryl Casone analyzes the Jul… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1308,3253,541,2294,3947,176,4248,913,1307],"class_list":["post-2161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-cola","tag-competing","tag-data","tag-estimates","tag-fresh","tag-inflation","tag-released","tag-security","tag-social"],"yoast_head":"\n
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