{"id":2641,"date":"2026-08-19T11:35:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T11:35:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=2641"},"modified":"2026-08-19T11:35:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T11:35:23","slug":"the-iranians-have-trump-right-where-they-want-him-and-suggest-he-seek-a-dignified-exit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=2641","title":{"rendered":"The Iranians have Trump right where they want him and suggest he seek ‘a dignified exit’"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\u27a1\ufe0f Did someone forward you this email?<\/strong> If you would like to receive this information directly, every morning before the markets open in New York, <\/strong>sign up here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

Bond vigilantes are on the move as Treasury market blows through Scott Bessent\u2019s red lines<\/b><\/h2>\n

The bond market is currently pricing risk correctly, according to Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke\u2014and what it\u2019s pricing in is ugly. <\/span>In an interview with <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Nick Lichtenberg<\/span>, Hanke argued that President Trump has inadvertently mixed what he called \u201ca deadly cocktail\u201d for Treasuries, and the result is a bond selloff that has already pushed yields past the informal threshold Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been trying to defend.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hanke said, \u201cthe bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation\u201d in reference to the investors who have served as the scourge of administrations for decades, selling government debt <\/span>en masse<\/span><\/i> to punish what they see as reckless fiscal or monetary policy, ultimately driving yields higher until policymakers change course. As yields rise, so do the interest rates on a range of consumer credit products, such as mortgages and car loans, making the cost of borrowing more expensive for everyone.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bessent has said he wants the 10-year yield to carry a \u201c3 handle\u201d\u2014meaning below 4%\u2014and multiple reports describe a widely understood marker around 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year as his upper red lines. The problem: the 10-year is at 4.696%, and the 30-year is at 5.284%. The latter hasn\u2019t been that high since roughly 2003.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed chairman Kevin Warsh<\/b> has declined to give the market \u201cforward guidance\u201d and investors have responded to that uncertainty by selling off U.S. bonds. \u201cThe rise in the term premium and bear steepening of the curve following Warsh\u2019s first two FOMC meetings could indicate that the Fed\u2019s credibility is being tested,\u201d Alpine Macro\u2019s Bassam Nawfal said in a note. However, he forecasts that incoming inflation data will be soft and thus stop the Fed from raising rates further this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

THE GULF<\/h3>\n

Iran has Trump right where it wants him<\/b><\/h2>\n

In Iran, President Trump appears to be locked into a war he can neither win nor lose, according to Alpine Macro chief geopolitical strategist Dan Alamariu. The chart below shows that the higher gasoline prices go, the worse Trump\u2019s poll ratings become. Trump can\u2019t abandon the war with Iran because \u201cAmerican voters don\u2019t like presidents that lose wars,\u201d Alamariu said in a note. But if he continues the conflict, Iran can simply maintain the lockdown on the Strait of Hormuz, keeping gas prices high and Trump unpopular with U.S. voters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c<\/b>Iran’s ascendant IRGC-dominated hardliners say they will not reopen Hormuz without controlling the Strait. Tehran also demands reparations, an end to sanctions, and a U.S. military exit from the region. These are terms of capitulation Trump cannot accept. The unpopular war and higher gasoline prices cost him, but a chaotic Middle East retreat would be worse,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Expect Iran to refuse a peace deal until after the midterms are over, Alamariu predicts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, negotiations with Iran are at a standstill,<\/b> Trump said yesterday. \u201cThere are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,\u201d <\/span>he posted on Truth Social<\/span>. He also insisted that \u201cThe Hormuz Strait is open and operating.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However,<\/b> only six vessels transited the Strait on Tuesday<\/span> and <\/span>two ships were attacked<\/span> by unknown entities in recent days. The Strait remains effectively shut.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the increase in the price of oil is offsetting Iran\u2019s economic losses<\/b> from the war. The country made $7.5 billion in foreign currency sales of oil in the first four months of the year, <\/span>the semi-official Fars news agency said<\/span>\u201450% more than the year before.<\/span><\/p>\n

Take this with a pinch of salt but \u2026 <\/b>Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf <\/span>announced<\/span> a \u201cnew regional order\u201d in the Gulf region, in which \u201cthe interference of foreigners and extra-regional actors in the region\u2019s equations is rapidly decreasing. American forces are seeking a dignified exit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

A sea of red as traders move into risk-off mode<\/b><\/h2>\n

Stocks were down across all the world\u2019s major indexes this morning as traders grimaced at the unending siege in the Strait of Hormuz and bond investors pushed up the risk premium on debt issued by the governments of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, and Japan. Tech stocks led declines\u2014the Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.68%; futures were flat this morning. Meta lost 4.45% after testimony began in a federal trial over whether its algorithms are harmful to children. It recovered a little, 0.33%, in premarket trading.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were flat this morning. The index fell <\/span>0.69<\/span>% yesterday.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down <\/span>0.03<\/span>% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down <\/span>0.14<\/span>% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was down <\/span>5.80<\/span>%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down <\/span>3.16<\/span>%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down <\/span>0.41<\/span>%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down <\/span>2.90<\/span>%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Brent crude<\/b> was $91 per barrel this morning.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/b> was at $64.3K.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Robot maker Unitree makes $66 billion debut in Shanghai<\/b><\/h2>\n
    \"\"<\/div>\n

    Unitree shares debuted in Shanghai today, where they surged by around 630%. The robot maker\u2019s IPO raised around $900 million at a valuation of $9 billion. The Hangzhou-based startup is probably China’s most prominent robotics company\u2014its videos of dancing and leaping robots frequently go viral\u2014and is leading the way in the country’s overall dominance in the production of humanoid, quadruped, and industrial robots, <\/span>Fortune\u2019s <\/span><\/i>Nicholas Gordon tells me.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Unitree is now valued at $66 billion, lifting it far above both domestic and foreign competitors like China’s UBTech and the U.S.’s Figure AI. [Photo: Julien de Rosa via Getty Images.]<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

    MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

    Inside the $8 billion cybersecurity acquisition that rescued ServiceNow from the \u2018Saaspocalypse\u2019<\/span> – Lily Mae Lazarus<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tesla asked Las Vegas for 5,000 robotaxi permits. Sin City gave it 10, capped the speed at 45 mph, and banned airport trips<\/span> – Catherina Gioino<\/span><\/p>\n

    USC just shattered its fundraising record by nearly $100 million\u2014thanks partly to the billionaire family behind the Houston Texans<\/span> – Sydney Lake<\/span><\/p>\n

    The IRS is scrutinizing how UnitedHealth moved money through foreign subsidiaries\u2014and whether it underpaid taxes<\/span> – Tatiana Sataua<\/span><\/p>\n

    Strait of Hormuz chaos has incentivized China to use an alternative trade route: a 3,400 mile frozen Arctic channel dubbed the \u2018Ice Silk Road\u2019<\/span> – Sasha Rogelberg<\/span><\/p>\n

    Princeton\u2019s \u2018AI Snake Oil\u2019 author says the real fear isn\u2019t thinking machines\u2014it\u2019s that AI exposes who already knows how to think<\/span> – Nick Lichtenberg<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nelson Peltz might take Wendy\u2019s private following six straight quarterly sales declines as customers flee its poor franchise models and bad marketing<\/span> – Tatiana Sataua<\/span><\/p>\n

    CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    Does this chart predict when the AI bubble will burst?<\/b><\/h2>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    Morgan Stanley\u2019s Lisa Shalett and her team produced this amusing chart showing year-over-year percentage growth in tech capex, compared with the same for the dotcom bubble era. Lo and behold, the two lines follow each other! The good news is, we\u2019ve got about three more years of this until we need to worry.<\/span><\/p>\n

    NUMBER OF THE DAY: AI revenues<\/h3>\n

    $115 billion<\/b><\/h2>\n

    The estimated combined revenues of Anthropic and OpenAI, \u201cmore than the combined trailing-12-month revenues of software giants SAP, Salesforce, and Adobe,\u201d according to ARK Invest\u2019s Jozef Soja.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cAnthropic and OpenAI have increased their [annual revenue run-rate] to a level approaching the ~$150 billion annualized run rate of Microsoft\u2019s Productivity and Business Processes segment, and exceeding the revenue from Windows and the Microsoft Office suite of products, which launched 43 years ago in 1983,\u201d he said in an email.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

    Iran eyes military targets in Europe if Donald Trump escalates war, insiders say<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

    Trump pauses 50% scheduled tariffs on Canada for three days, announces \u2018deal\u2019 with Ottawa<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

    Angie Nixon scores socialist breakthrough in Trump’s Florida<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

    How Trump\u2019s ever-present executive assistant became the talk of Washington<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

    UAE cuts economic ties with Iran after missiles target territory<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

    The meaning of the $20 burrito that\u2019s tearing MAGA apart<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

    ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

    Siemens CEO has a rule for handling his email inbox<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Roland Busch, the CEO of Siemens, has a rule for his email inbox: he doesn\u2019t like it if there are more than 100 messages in there. \u201cI try to keep my inbox below 100. If you have more than 100 emails in your inbox, you lose the overview of what\u2019s actually on your plate,\u201d <\/span>Busch said<\/span>. \u201cI accomplish this by answering messages quickly and using a few words.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    #Iranians #Trump #suggest #seek #dignified #exit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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