{"id":3595,"date":"2026-09-01T11:09:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T11:09:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=3595"},"modified":"2026-09-01T11:09:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T11:09:15","slug":"bond-market-in-open-revolt-as-trump-declines-iranian-peace-deal-and-oil-hits-92-a-barrel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=3595","title":{"rendered":"Bond market in open revolt as Trump declines Iranian peace deal and oil hits $92 a barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\u27a1\ufe0f Did someone forward you this email?<\/strong> If you would like to receive this information directly, every morning before the markets open in New York, <\/strong>sign up here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

Venezuela oil pact \u2018looks like an insider deal\u2019 for those close to Delcy and Trump, expert says<\/b><\/h2>\n

President Trump\u2019s plan for the U.S. to own majority control of Venezuelan oilfields harks back to a century-old era of colonialism and backroom dealmaking with Venezuelan oilmen and politicians, energy and geopolitical analysts <\/span>told <\/span>Fortune\u2019s <\/span><\/i>Jordan Blum<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf the U.S. scheme in Venezuela sounds colonial, that\u2019s because it is,\u201d said Gregory Brew, senior analyst with the Eurasia Group. \u201cThis is the Trump administration trying to increase U.S. revenue from Venezuelan oil production. It\u2019s extremely unusual. It\u2019s probably unprecedented in the history of the international oil industry.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Under the deal, the U.S. would control more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela.<\/span><\/p>\n

The agreement would give the U.S. Department of Defense a 55% stake in the private Venezuelan oil producer North American Blue Energy Partners. NABEP is controlled by the Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt L\u00f3pez and his family. L\u00f3pez has fostered close relationships with both the Trump and Rodr\u00edguez administrations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFrom a certain angle, this looks like an insider deal to profit businessmen who are close to Delcy and who are also close to Trump and his inner circle,\u201d Brew told <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE WAR<\/h3>\n

Iran again offers to accept Trump\u2019s deal but the president wants to \u2018hit them hard\u2019 instead<\/b><\/h2>\n

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has entered a surreal new phase in which Iran is offering to accept the deal based on the \u201cmemorandum of understanding\u201d first offered by the White House in June, but President Trump shows no signs of wanting to take the deal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was prepared to reciprocate if the U.S. honored its commitments under the MOU, <\/span>according to Al Jazeera<\/span>. Iran made a similar offer\u2014to accept the MOU\u2014<\/span>on August 26<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The MOU technically expired on August 17. <\/span>The MOU proposes an end <\/span>to all hostilities, an end to sanctions, and $300 billion in reparations. It also requires Iran to \u201cnot procure or develop nuclear weapons\u201d but it allows for \u201cenrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump is considering a further set of relatively limited strikes on Iran to degrade its ability to hit ships on the Strait of Hormuz, <\/span>Axios reported<\/span>. “The President retains all options at his disposal. The Iranians want to make a deal, but they are always a day late and a dollar short,\u201d a source told the site. \u201cWe are going to hit them hard,\u201d Trump told Fox News yesterday, in response to Iran\u2019s previous strikes on U.S. sites in the Gulf, which were in turn triggered by U.S. strikes on Iranian missile launchers near the Strait.<\/span><\/p>\n

Both sides continue to be engaged in skirmishes in the Strait. Two supertankers were hit by unknown projectiles in the last 24 hours, <\/span>according to Bloomberg<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. has made progress in terms of removing Iran\u2019s ability to damage ships in the Strait, the WSJ reported. However, Iran has developed the ability to launch mines into the sea by firing them from rockets\u2014a tactic that is confounding the U.S. blockade. <\/span>As the WSJ put it<\/span>:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • \u201cAt the heart of the fight is a fundamental imbalance of mine warfare. Iran doesn\u2019t necessarily need to sink ships. It only needs to persuade shipowners, captains and insurers that the risk of encountering a mine while transiting the strait is too high to make the trip.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
  • \u201cFor the U.S., however, which wants to ensure safe passage, the mission is harder. It needs to disable or remove every mine.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

    Bond market revolt has traders selling out of stocks worldwide<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Stock markets are selling off this morning in reaction to the price of Brent crude going up to $92 per barrel and\u2014perhaps more importantly\u2014a global selloff in bonds as investors express their frustration with government debt levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    The U.S. 30-year Treasury rose to 5.278%, and appears to be heading back over 5.3%. That was the level that forced Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to deploy a bond buyback scheme a week or so ago. (As the price of bonds declines, the interest yield traders demand for holding them goes up.)<\/span><\/p>\n

    The U.K. 30-year gilt hit 5.8906%, a level it has not seen since 1998. And the Japan 10-year bond hit 2.992%, its highest since 1996.<\/span><\/p>\n

    With no end to the U.S.-Iran conflict in sight, it\u2019s not surprising that U.S. futures were down after markets in both Europe and Asia took losses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were down <\/span>0.53<\/span>% this morning. The index fell <\/span>0.33<\/span>% yesterday.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
    • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was up <\/span>0.74<\/span>% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down <\/span>1.18<\/span>% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up <\/span>0.23<\/span>%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down <\/span>0.15<\/span>%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down <\/span>0.46<\/span>%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down <\/span>0.3<\/span>%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Brent crude<\/b> rose to $92 per barrel this morning.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Bitcoin<\/b> was $77,821.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/div>\n

      <\/span><\/p>\n

      Useless 60:40 strategy is even more useless than previously thought, top analyst says<\/b><\/h2>\n

      We\u2019ve noted repeatedly that the 60:40 stocks-to-bonds strategy for investing stopped working years ago, but some analysts believe this dead horse needs to be flogged just a little bit more. AllianceBernstein\u2019s Inigo Fraser Jenkins, in a discussion of what you\u2019d need to create a portfolio robust enough to survive 100 years, discovered that the 60:40 strategy isn’t even a good hedge against inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201cThis strategy has beaten inflation in recent decades, but the longer history is less encouraging,\u201d he said in a recent note. \u201cOnce the horizon is long enough, it is essentially a coin flip if a 60:40 outperforms inflation or not.\u201d He also notes that \u201cthere are periods like the 1940s and 1970s when inflation can wipe out years of returns.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/div>\n

      <\/span><\/p>\n

      MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

      The End of Privacy? Flock Safety Explained<\/span> | Fortune Daily<\/span><\/p>\n

      Starbucks is discontinuing a blending powder for drinks after particles went \u2018airborne\u2019 and left baristas coughing and falling ill<\/span> – Sasha Rogelberg<\/span><\/p>\n

      Sony and Warner Music sue Anthropic over alleged theft of \u2018tens of thousands\u2019 of songs, including \u2018I Am the Walrus\u2019 and \u2018Hallelujah\u2019<\/span> – Joshua Hong<\/span><\/p>\n

      Meet the CEO whose century-old company never laid off employees through the Great Depression, the recession, or Covid<\/span> – Mia Osmonbekov<\/span><\/p>\n

      Asia\u2019s aging population will redefine retirement, care\u2014and independence<\/span> – Steve Finch<\/span><\/p>\n

      THE DOLE<\/h3>\n

      What does Warsh watch? Unemployment claims.<\/b><\/h2>\n

      In his Jackson Hole speech last Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in particular highlighted unemployment claims: \u201cLabor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average\u2014an empirically robust real-time indicator\u2014are near their lowest level in decades,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      That was significant, according to Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, especially because he called out unemployment claims as \u201can empirically robust real-time indicator.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201cWe\u2019ve been pounding the table on this for years, saying claims (a hard count that\u2019s rarely meaningfully revised) are a great (and very timely) labor indicator,\u201d Lazar told clients in a note seen by <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>. The 13-week moving average of unemployment claims predicts the private payrolls number eight weeks in advance, Lazar says, as illustrated by this chart (below). \u201cToday, they suggest private employment growth will accelerate toward 1% y\/y as we move into 4Q \u2013 another tailwind for 2027 growth,\u201d she told clients.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/div>\n

      <\/span><\/p>\n

      QUOTE OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

      “In this world nothing is certain, except death, taxes, and quantitative easing.”<\/b><\/h2>\n

      \u2014Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist, Bank of America Global Research.<\/span><\/p>\n

      CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

      Don\u2019t worry about quantum computers cracking encryption\u2014progress may be slower than you think<\/b><\/h2>\n

      \n
      \"\"<\/div>\n<\/h2>\n

      The earliest year in which quantum computing will be able to unlock standard encryption is 2044, according to ARK Invest.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201cQuantum computing’s performance improvement curve has been slow. Despite spending billions in research and development, Google doubled qubits only once in more than four years. Even if its performance and costs were to improve markedly, achieving Moore’s Law’s pace, quantum computing would not be useful for cryptographic decryption until the 2040s,\u201d Cathie Wood\u2019s team believes.<\/span><\/p>\n

      THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

      Global bond sell-off deepens amid inflation fears<\/span> – FT\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Bessent reportedly tells Russia no economic relief until Ukraine war ends as Europe snubs Moscow at G20<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

      Supreme Court allows Trump’s ballroom construction to proceed<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

      Anthropic Signs $35 Billion Cloud Deal Backed by Nvidia<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

      Apple\u2019s 2,275% Gain Under Tim Cook Is A Tough Act for John Ternus to Follow<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

      F.T.C. and 22 States Claim in Lawsuit That Amazon Secretly Inflated Ad Prices<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

      ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

      The sardine index: How global warming is putting up the price of tinned fish<\/b><\/h2>\n

      The global tinned fish market was worth roughly $10.24 billion in 2024, and is projected to reach $17.97 billion by 2034. But the supply behind that growing appetite is shrinking fast. Morocco, the world\u2019s top sardine supplier, saw its fish landings fall nearly 46% between 2022 and 2024, and the reasons are feeding into each other. Because sardines are unusually sensitive to temperature, warming water as a result of climate change is pushing the fish into new territories further away from fishermen, <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Catherina Gioino reports<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The war in Iran, coupled with the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz (through which one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply normally passes) is driving up fuel costs. Fishermen now need to go farther to catch the fish, just as it\u2019s costing them that much more to travel longer distances, and they\u2019re bringing back almost half the quantity as before.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      #Bond #market #open #revolt #Trump #declines #Iranian #peace #deal #oil #hits #barrel<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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