{"id":4255,"date":"2026-09-10T10:35:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T10:35:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=4255"},"modified":"2026-09-10T10:35:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T10:35:19","slug":"fortune-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=4255","title":{"rendered":"Fortune"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

FREE MONEY?<\/h3>\n

Trump promises $5,000 for every adult if Republicans win the midterms\u2014but he may not be able to deliver<\/b><\/h2>\n

President Trump promised to give every adult American citizen a \u201cdividend\u201d of $5,000 if the Republicans retain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections, <\/span>he said in a campaign rally last night<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our tremendous economic success \u2026 I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,\u201d he said. \u201cVery much like a successful company will do a cash distribution to its shareholders.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The promise (which would cost more than $1 trillion) immediately raised questions. A cash payout would require congressional approval\u2014and that\u2019s not guaranteed. In 2020, Congress blocked Trump\u2019s request for $2,000 COVID-19 stimulus checks, reducing the sum to $600. Biden approved an additional $1,400 in 2021, and Republicans claimed it drove record-high inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe (presumably deficit-financed) stimulus would be larger than occurred during the pandemic. If bond markets believe the president, the deficit and inflation consequences would be meaningful. The initial reaction suggests bond investors are not taking this seriously,\u201d UBS economist Paul Donovan said in an email this morning.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 30-year Treasury was back above 5.3% this morning and the 10-year rose to 4.9%\u2014suggesting investors are again demanding extra risk premiums for holding American debt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also, it is <\/span>illegal to give people money<\/span> in exchange for their votes.<\/span><\/p>\n

And then there is the question of whether Trump will actually keep his word, and what he meant when he used the term \u201cdividend.\u201d Voters who are mentally buying jet skis today might be disappointed if Trump delivered the $5,000 in the form of lower inflation or long-dated bond buybacks that decrease the cost of U.S. debt.<\/span><\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

21 photos of Apple\u2019s first-ever foldable iPhone<\/span> – Alexei Oreskovic<\/span><\/p>\n

GM CEO Mary Barra wants you to buy self-driving cars and drive EVs in the AI future<\/span> – Fortune Editors<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018My boss is the Chinese customer\u2019: Walmart China CEO Christina Zhu on how the Fortune 500 company is thriving in a tough retail market<\/span> – Angelica Ang<\/span><\/p>\n

Billionaire Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says most charities are \u2018net negative\u2019\u2014and that he has no plans to make his own foundation<\/span> – Sydney Lake<\/span><\/p>\n

CEO of an automation platform explains how he wrote a 168-page book with AI: \u2018It was like a Socratic dialogue\u2019 – Diane Brady<\/p>\n

Europe can still be an industrial powerhouse\u2014but it needs investment<\/span> – Can Din\u00e7er<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s \u2018America First\u2019 national park fees for foreign tourists have raised a quarter of what was promised<\/span> – Catherina Gioino<\/span><\/p>\n

Bayer COO: We stopped assigning sales targets. Our teams aimed higher<\/span> – Sebastian Guth<\/span><\/p>\n

Wealthy parents are buying their kids $75,000 AI schooling with guardrails as schools grapple with a literacy crisis<\/span> – Mia Osmonbekov<\/span><\/p>\n

Ayala, one of Asia\u2019s oldest conglomerates, wants to keep itself together. Its CEO explains why<\/span> – Angelica Ang<\/span><\/p>\n

IRAN<\/h3>\n

The price of oil is at $101\u2014and it may not be high enough<\/b><\/h2>\n

The price of Brent crude oil sat at $101 per barrel this morning after <\/span>an Iranian official told Bloomberg<\/span> it was prepared to escalate its attacks on U.S. forces in the Gulf. The Iran-backed <\/span>Houthis also made gains in coastal Yemen<\/span>, opening the prospect that Iran may end up controlling both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. About 20% of the world\u2019s oil was historically exported through Hormuz; a further 9-12% goes through the Bab el Mandeb.<\/span><\/p>\n

$101 may not be high enough, <\/span>according to analysts who spoke to <\/span>Fortune\u2019s <\/span><\/i>Jordan Blum<\/span>. \u201cThe conflict has entered a new stage,\u201d according to Susan Bell, senior vice president for the Rystad Energy research firm. \u201cGlobal stocks of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel have drawn down an awful lot; they are now at critical low levels. They\u2019ve breached levels we last saw after Russia first invaded Ukraine.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The only solution is that prices rise more to force further \u201cdemand destruction\u201d of oil and fuels, she said. \u201cI hate to say it, but we need prices at the pump to go up higher to encourage consumers to make choices on their energy consumption. We need more (global) austerity measures,\u201d Bell said.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Trump told reporters on Wednesday, \u201c<\/span>This war will end immediately after our election<\/span>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

INTEREST-ING<\/h3>\n

The two signals that will forecast a rate increase from the Fed<\/b><\/h2>\n

On Friday, we will get the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) number for August, and Wall Street suspects it will be the icing on the interest-rate-hike cake. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has already hinted that he thinks persistent price inflation is more worrying than the labor market, setting the stage for the central bank to move rates from the 3.5% level to 3.75%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe narrative appears to be that everything now hinges on a single data point: Friday\u2019s CPI print for August. We tend to agree, and certainly a hot number here could embolden some of the doves to shift allegiance in favor of a hike next week,\u201d Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury, told <\/span>Fortune <\/span><\/i>in an email.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The key will be to watch what the CME FedWatch futures index does. Right now, it is showing a 64% probability of a hike on September 16. But that probability will become a certainty if it goes above 69%, according to Ohsung Kwon and his team at Wells Fargo. \u201cWe believe CPI will determine whether the Fed hikes or not,\u201d they said in an email to <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>. \u201cSince 2015, \u2026 the Fed always made a move when over 69% was priced-in to meetings.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • So if CPI comes in higher <\/span>and<\/span><\/i> FedWatch goes over 69%, you can all but guarantee the Fed will hike a week from now.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    AI is pushing Warsh toward a rate increase<\/b><\/h2>\n

    One factor driving inflation is AI: Within personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the price index most closely watched by the Fed, AI has pushed up prices for software and accessories, per Deutsche Bank\u2019s Jim Reid:<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

    Oil rises and stocks decline as traders lock in for sustained war with Iran<\/b><\/h2>\n

    U.S. futures were marginally up this morning before the opening bell in New York, suggesting some traders felt the overnight selloff in Asia and Europe was overdone. Yields on U.S. bonds ticked up and the price of oil continued to climb after both Iran and President Trump signaled they were nowhere close to a peace deal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were up <\/span>0.11<\/span>% this morning. The index lost <\/span>0.48<\/span>% yesterday.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
    • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down <\/span>0.18<\/span>% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down <\/span>0.41<\/span>% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was down <\/span>0.25<\/span>%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was up <\/span>0.2<\/span>%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down <\/span>0.17<\/span>%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down <\/span>0.53<\/span>%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Brent crude<\/b> was $101 per barrel this morning.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Bitcoin<\/b> was $<\/span>78,078.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \"\"<\/div>\n

      Chart via TradingEconomics.com<\/em><\/p>\n

      CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

      Global warming is harming food production in Europe<\/b><\/h2>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/div>\n

      <\/span><\/p>\n

      This map from Deutsche Bank shows how much hotter Europe was in July of this year compared to the same period 10 years ago. The red areas indicate temperatures that are two standard deviations above the norm.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The heat, the lack of rain, and reduced soil moisture are likely to hurt agricultural production and jack up food prices, Maui Brennan and his colleagues said in a note: \u201cAcross Europe, the ingredients for tighter agricultural supply are visible. Temperatures across Europe sit 2 degrees Celsius [about 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit] above normal in the last two months. Rain levels have slipped meaningfully over the same period. Soil moisture levels have also fallen below normal levels.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      NUMBER OF THE DAY: The OnlyFans era<\/h3>\n

      55%\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n

      The percentage of social media creators of any kind on Linktree who also include OnlyFans as one of their linked accounts. The <\/span>survey of 4,827 creator pages<\/span>, by Giggster (a shoot location provider), suggests that OF is a more dominant platform for creators than previously thought.<\/span><\/p>\n

      THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

      How Would AI Actually Kill Us All? What to Know About the AI Doomsday Debate<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

      City of London set to drop century-old rule against logos on buildings<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

      World\u2019s largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

      Anthropic whistleblower gave up his equity to leave the company<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

      Bessent\u2019s Upsized Buybacks Get Hit by Bond Market Reality<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

      Elon Musk threatens to sue over Alex Gibney\u2019s controversial documentary as lawyer says flick reeks of bias<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n

      ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

      Who is behind the tiny non-profit buying a $2 million ad campaign for Bitcoin in the Wall Street Journal?<\/b><\/h2>\n

      Over the past three weeks, a pro-Bitcoin group called the Nakamoto Project has been using a decidedly old-school form of outreach to promote the digital currency: A series of print ads in <\/span>The Wall Street Journal<\/span><\/i>. Photos of the ads have appeared prominently on social media\u2014perhaps proving the campaign to be effective\u2014but they have also given rise to a mystery: Who is picking up the tab for placing ads in a national newspaper whose circulation is estimated to be more than half a million copies?<\/span><\/p>\n

      The Nakamoto Project\u2019s ads could carry a standard, pre-discount price of about $2.17 million. This price tag raises the question of how the Nakamoto Project, a little-known nonprofit founded in 2023 with three board members, was able to finance an initiative of this scale. <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Camila Grigera Na\u00f3n asked them a few questions<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      #Fortune<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      FREE MONEY? Trump promises $5,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[515,133,516,456,166,381],"class_list":["post-4255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-economics","tag-fortune","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-iran","tag-markets","tag-news"],"yoast_head":"\nFortune - Finance News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=4255\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fortune - Finance News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"FREE MONEY? 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