Stocks slid Wednesday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh followed the central bank\u2019s first rate hike in three years with a press conference that hinted it wouldn\u2019t be the last.<\/p>\n
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The S&P 500 dropped 1%, heading toward its lowest close since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7%, or more than 700 points, with financial shares leading the decline. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5% a day after touching its highest level since 2007, and the dollar index climbed 0.6% to its strongest since late July.<\/p>\n
Markets had priced in the quarter-point increase itself and initially took it in stride. All three indexes were higher before the 2 p.m. decision. The selling started during the press conference.<\/p>\n
Warsh was on a tightrope going in. The question was whether he\u2019d frame the hike as a one-off adjustment\u2014which risked the bond market reading it as too little to deter inflation\u2014or as the start of a longer cycle. He did neither, and instead went in a more hawkish direction. \u201cI would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,\u201d he said in his opening remarks. \u201cThis view was widely shared by the committee, so we removed a dose of accommodation.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a new way of describing a rate hike, and one investors aren\u2019t used to. Under his predecessor, Jerome Powell, the Fed called policy \u201cmodestly restrictive,\u201d meaning rates were already high enough to slow the economy. Warsh was saying that at 3.5%\u20133.75%, they weren\u2019t\u2014and by implication, one quarter point may not have gotten them there either. Asked directly, he declined to say whether policy is restrictive now.<\/p>\n
He also distanced himself from the Fed\u2019s own projections, which show one more hike this year and then a pause through 2027. \u201cThose aren\u2019t my forecasts,\u201d he said. \u201cThose are the forecasts of my 18 colleagues.\u201d Warsh has not submitted his own projection since taking the job in May. Asked whether the hike would be followed by a sequence, he said, \u201cI\u2019m not in the forward guidance business.\u201d<\/p>\n
For equities, which had hoped the Fed would hike a little and stop, that was a bad combination: a chair who thinks rates are still too low, won\u2019t say how much higher they need to go, and won\u2019t endorse the forecast that says the answer is \u201cnot much.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the economy keeps up like it has, the Fed is telling us that we may not see a cut until 2028,\u201d Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note after the meeting. \u201cInstead, another hike may be on its way.\u201d Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that \u201cthe history is clear that once the Fed begins raising rates, they do it multiple times.\u201d Fed funds futures now show traders split on whether the next hike comes in October.<\/p>\n
Not everyone agreed. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, expects one more hike and then a stop. \u201cWe don\u2019t think this is the beginning of another major tightening cycle,\u201d he wrote, \u201cand markets have too much tightening priced in over the coming year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#Stocks #slide #lowest #level #July #Warshs #hawkish #press #conference<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Stocks slid Wednesday afternoo… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4723,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[113,2541,1335,2258,4405,1343,2096,4479,7776,2540,212,91,221,2201],"class_list":["post-4722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-bonds","tag-conference","tag-federal-reserve","tag-hawkish","tag-jerome-powell","tag-july","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-level","tag-lowest","tag-press","tag-slide","tag-stock","tag-stocks","tag-warshs"],"yoast_head":"\n
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