Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh told markets yesterday that the central bank\u2019s rate-setting committee had unanimously agreed on a 25 basis point interest rate hike to combat inflation.<\/p>\n
The U.S. base rate now sits at 3.75% to 4%, a quarter-percentage-point increase in the opposite direction of the downward trajectory Trump has been aggressively lobbying for. Warsh, whose critics feared would be a \u201csock puppet\u201d for the White House, backed the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), saying: \u201cThe plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n
The agreement to increase the base rate, combined with Warsh\u2019s commitment to bringing inflation to the Fed\u2019s 2% target, will go some way to reassure skeptics that the central bank remains\u2014as is legally mandated\u2014credibly independent.<\/p>\n
But Trump is unhappy. Still standing by his nominee, Trump directed his ire at the other voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He told reporters following the announcement: \u201c[Warsh] has got a very tough board. He\u2019s got a board that was put there by a lot of other people, and the interest rates are too high. They\u2019re not appropriate.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI talked to Kevin, and I said, \u2018You might as well vote with the board because it\u2019s not going to matter.\u2019 The board is very hostile, they\u2019re very political, they\u2019re doing the wrong thing. They are a bunch of politicians or people put on by politicians, and it\u2019s a shame because it\u2019s too high.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the president\u2019s support may be preferable to his contempt (as Warsh\u2019s predecessor and fellow Trump-nominee, Jerome Powell, learned the hard way), Trump\u2019s comments do little to help the central bank chairman trying to assure markets he is acting in the best interests of the economy and the public, rather than Capitol Hill.<\/p>\n
Trump suggested the economy can \u201cbarrel through\u201d the higher rates because it is \u201cdoing so well,\u201d but implied he was the target of the committee\u2019s action: \u201cThe problem they have is that we have the greatest economy in history \u2026 so they\u2019re raising that only for political reasons, and that\u2019s a raise against Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n
Now, in the run-up to the midterms, American voters are facing inflation at 3.4%\u2014driven, in part, by supply-side shocks to oil markets prompted by the U.S.-Iranian conflict in the Middle East. The issue is front of mind for voters, with a recent Pew Research study finding the economy was the top priority consumers were thinking about (29%), followed by affordability specifically (15%).<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019s Trump headache<\/h2>\n
While Warsh and Trump would not have spoken around the time of the FOMC meeting (as the Fed observes a strict blackout period) the writing has been on the wall about a September hike for some time. <\/p>\n
The FOMC\u2019s priority between the two sides of its mandate (inflation at 2% and maximum employment) has been clear. While jobs data has been relatively solid\u2014the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)\u00a0report this month showed that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%\u2014inflation remains comfortably above average. As Warsh pointed out yesterday, inflation hasn\u2019t been at or below 2% for more than five years.<\/p>\n
Indeed, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Fortune<\/em> in an exclusive interview earlier this month: \u201cOn the real side, we\u2019ve been stable, now inching toward dangers of overheat, and on the inflation side, after a couple of years of strong progress, it stalled out and started getting worse. But we\u2019ve had one encouraging report, one okay report, and now our challenge is \u2026 the inflation.\u201d<\/p>\nIt was therefore inevitable that the vast majority of interest rate traders and Wall Street analysts\u2014as well as politicians on Capitol Hill\u2014had expected a hike. <\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s comments may prove a further hindrance to Warsh if analysts were to take them at face value: The suggestion that the chairman \u201cmight as well\u201d have voted for a hike, rather than conviction and consensus, might alter inflation expectations. Despite that headache, markets have shown they tend to look through Trump\u2019s comments until policy action ensues.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#Trump #blames #politics #inflation #latest #Fed #hike<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4212,1336,6114,2529,2585,176,2096,2977,938,357],"class_list":["post-4758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-blames","tag-fed","tag-fed-interest-rate","tag-fed-interest-rate-hike","tag-hike","tag-inflation","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-latest","tag-politics","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"\n
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<\/p>\n