{"id":5245,"date":"2026-09-24T10:54:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T10:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=5245"},"modified":"2026-09-24T10:54:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T10:54:03","slug":"fed-rate-wall-street-expects-hike-amid-oil-inflation-question-for-kevin-warsh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=5245","title":{"rendered":"Fed rate: Wall Street expects hike amid oil inflation question for Kevin Warsh"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2277129824-e1790244293957.jpg?w=2048\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kevin Warsh has\u2014so far\u2014managed to walk the line between his popularity in the White House and reassuring markets of Fed independence.<\/p>\n<p>That balance is getting more precarious, as data is shaping up towards expectations for another base interest rate hike at the conclusion of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October.<\/p>\n<p>Expectations for another 25bps hike now sit at a little over 75%, CME\u2019s FedWatch barometer shows at the time of writing. That move would irk President Trump, who has been lobbying for lower rates since before he returned to office.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, with market expectations shifting higher\u2014as well as bond yields increasing\u2014Warsh and the FOMC will face renewed credibility questions if they don\u2019t act.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">10-year Treasury yields sit over 5.1% at the time of writing. The 30-year Treasury is above 5.4%. As Deutsche Bank\u2019s Jim Reid said to clients this morning, the 10-year sell-off marked the<strong> <\/strong>\u201cbiggest daily jump since the market turmoil after Liberation Day in April 2025, taking it up to a post-2007 high.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA weak 5yr auction also didn\u2019t help matters,\u201d Reid added, \u201cwith yields up to their intraday highs after $70bn of notes were sold at 5.03%, +3.1bps above the pre-sale yield.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation expectations are also adding fuel to the fire. Markets had been cautiously optimistic for some good news on this front, with U.S and Iran negotiators meeting this week\u2014heralding a potential de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a normalization of oil prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Signs of an agreement remain elusive: Iran\u2019s President Masoud Pezeshkian told the U.N. yesterday that it would never \u201cbend the knee\u201d but signaled it was ready for \u201cready for dialogue and diplomacy.\u201d President Trump said he faced a decision: negotiating or \u201cannihilat[ing]\u201d the regime.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices have been tracking higher as the conversations continue, briefly hitting $108 per barrel of Brent crude this morning. Previously, analysts had suggested this week was a hinging moment for oil in the medium term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Macquarie\u2019s Thierry Wizman wrote in a note Tuesday: \u201cAgreements and accords that come out of [the] meetings may determine whether the war continues and intensifies or whether an off-ramp is found.\u201d <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The oil question<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wizman added: \u201cThe direction of crude oil prices still bears on what happens to inflation globally and the decisions taken by central banks in response. We have seen every major central bank (including the U.S.\u2019s Fed) cite either energy prices or \u201cgeopolitics\u201d as a driver of decision-making going forward. It is the key reason behind recent \u201chawkish\u201d rhetoric.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And there lies Warsh\u2019s conundrum. The FOMC has demonstrated with a hike at its last meeting that it is no longer willing to \u201clook through\u201d the supply-side inflation shock that the Middle East is creating\u2014at least, it is not willing to overlook it to the detriment of the wider economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But President Trump\u2019s response following the September meeting was telling. He implied that Warsh was still on the dovish side but that he was voting with the consensus out of submission rather than agreement. Trump also claimed the committee was acting politically, an unwelcome comment amid the Fed\u2019s continued battle to demonstrate and protect its independence.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bank of America\u2019s U.S. economics team suggested hiking\u2014even if it drew the ire of the White House\u2014might be \u201cexpedient\u201d for this reason. In a note last week, the team wrote: \u201cFed hikes looked politically challenging a few months ago, but they increasingly seem like an opportunity for Chair Warsh to burnish his legacy. We stick to our call for two more, in Oct and Dec.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe robustness of the nominal economy both increases the risks of inflation persistence and reduces the risks that hikes will cause a recession. However, if supply shocks prove persistent, the Fed might eventually have to choose between an extended inflation overshoot and a hard landing.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex flex-col layout-gap-md\">\n<div class=\"not-prose empty:contents clear-both [:has(*[data-empty=true])]:hidden max-md:[:has(*[data-empty-mobile=true])]:hidden md:[:has(*[data-empty-desktop=true])]:hidden\">\n<div class=\"typography-level-4 mt-4 font-graphik-compact [&amp;_*_a]:hover:underline [&amp;_*_a]:text-accent\" data-cy=\"subscriptionPlea\"><span class=\"description-parser contents\" data-cy=\"description\"><em><strong>Fortune Daily<\/strong><\/em> breaks the traditional barrier between audience and newsroom. The show transforms <em>Fortune<\/em>\u2019s trusted reporting into actionable, conversational, and entertaining insights for an emerging class of business leaders. <strong>Watch here.<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>#Fed #rate #Wall #Street #expects #hike #oil #inflation #question #Kevin #Warsh<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kevin Warsh has\u2014so far\u2014managed&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6898,1336,6114,2529,2585,176,456,1339,2096,717,6340,126,369,2048,1340],"class_list":["post-5245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-expects","tag-fed","tag-fed-interest-rate","tag-fed-interest-rate-hike","tag-hike","tag-inflation","tag-iran","tag-kevin","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-oil","tag-question","tag-rate","tag-street","tag-wall","tag-warsh"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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