{"id":5302,"date":"2026-09-25T01:09:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T01:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=5302"},"modified":"2026-09-25T01:09:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T01:09:11","slug":"kalshi-valuation-could-be-42-billion-if-it-can-survive-the-supreme-court","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=5302","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi valuation could be $42 billion\u2014if it can survive the Supreme Court"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\u27a1\ufe0f <\/strong>If you would like to receive this information in your inbox every morning before the markets open in New York, sign up here<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

Disney, dethroned: Dubai takes the Magic Kingdom\u2019s crown for the world\u2019s most-visited theme park<\/b><\/h2>\n

Disney\u2019s Magic Kingdom in Orlando has been dethroned as the world\u2019s most-visited theme park by Dubai’s Global Village, an attraction that began as a small pop-up fair in a parking lot, <\/span>Chris Sylt reports for Fortune<\/em><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

For more than two decades, the Magic Kingdom has held the title of the theme park with the highest annual attendance, according to the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA). Although this accolade is not in doubt, new analysis has revealed that the park isn\u2019t the undisputed leader it was believed to be.<\/span><\/p>\n

Disney comfortably has the highest combined attendance of any theme park operator. Its 14 outposts in four countries welcomed a total of 145.2 million guests in 2024, according to the TEA\u2019s latest data. The jewel in its crown is the Magic Kingdom in Florida. The latest TEA data shows that in 2024, the Magic Kingdom had an average of 48,732 visitors per day.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Global Village\u2019s tally came to 49,505, as it attracted 10 million people in just 202 days (Global Village isn\u2019t open during the brutal Dubai summer). What\u2019s more, Global Village\u2019s typical hours are 38% shorter than those of the Magic Kingdom, so its attendance per hour is around 33% higher than its rival in Orlando.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kalshi could be worth $42 billion as it eyes IPO<\/b><\/h2>\n

Prediction market Kalshi notched a $1 billion investment in May that valued it at $22 billion, and investors are eyeing an initial public offering as soon as next year. But it could be worth as much as $42 billion, according to an analysis by Pitchbook\u2014assuming the company can survive a looming Supreme Court case that may give individual U.S. states the right to regulate its business. <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Jeff John Roberts has the numbers<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

Why the Pentagon Is Attacking AI ‘Doomers’<\/span> | Fortune Daily<\/span><\/p>\n

OpenAI\u2019s agent hacked Australia\u2019s Medicare website\u2014the latest rogue AI incident that the company didn\u2019t know about for months<\/span> – Emily Forlini<\/span><\/p>\n

Vietnam is finally a FTSE emerging market\u2014yet it\u2019s the country\u2019s banks, not its exporters, that\u2019ll benefit most<\/span> – Angelica Ang<\/span><\/p>\n

Travis Kalanick is back: How Uber\u2019s ousted founder went from pariah to Silicon Valley hero<\/span> – Jeff John Roberts<\/span><\/p>\n

Billionaire Nike cofounder Phil Knight gives $1 billion to his alma mater: \u2018This is no time to abandon\u2019 higher education<\/span> – Sydney Lake<\/span><\/p>\n

China now makes up a record 40% of all global container exports\u2014and it\u2019s a sign Trump\u2019s tariffs meant to punish Chinese firms have fallen flat<\/span> – Sasha Rogelberg<\/span><\/p>\n

Why Trump banning diesel exports would upset the U.S. oil sector and upend global fuel markets \u2014 \u2018the cure would be far worse than the disease\u2019<\/span> – Jordan Blum<\/span><\/p>\n

A-MUSE-ING<\/h3>\n

Meta has taken the lead in the race for the post-smartphone world<\/b><\/h2>\n

Some moments make emerging tech feel genuinely different. That\u2019s the case the first time you put on a pair of Meta\u2019s most advanced smart glasses on the market, which project a high-resolution digital box inside the right lens and allow you\u2014with the help of a smart wristband\u2014to control objects on the screen by moving your fingers. Tap your pointer finger and thumb together to open an app. <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Sebastian Herrera tells us what it\u2019s like<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

AI hyperscalers are running out of time to make their money back\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n

When will the AI boom\u2014or bubble\u2014end? Oxford Economics\u2019 Ben May thinks he may have the answer: Next year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The hyperscalers funding the boom now have total negative free cash flow, he said in a recent research paper, and thus now need to generate vast profits in order to see a reasonable return on investment. \u201cBased on cumulative investment of around $3.8 trillion from 2024 to 2028, the hyperscalers would need to make $570 billion-$800 billion of additional profits per year to get these returns,\u201d he said.<\/span> \u201cBased on the dotcom experience, AI will need to generate substantial productivity gains soon\u2014arguably as early as next year\u2014to justify the elevated returns that investors and the AI firms themselves expect.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

But $570 billion-plus of additional profits may not be in the pipeline, according to estimates by Inigo Fraser Jenkins of AllianceBernstein. The hyperscalers\u2019 cloud-revenue backlog is now over $2 trillion, he said in a recent note. \u201cIf we assume a five-year time frame for the realization of this backlog, then it implies a run rate of $400 billion per year,\u201d he said. That\u2019s $400 billion in <\/span>revenue<\/span><\/i>, not <\/span>profit<\/span><\/i>\u2014which would leave the entire industry $170 billion-plus short of the minimum level that Oxford\u2019s May estimates will be required.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

Markets sell off globally in reaction to bond market fear<\/b><\/h2>\n

Stocks sold off globally today in reaction to the price of oil shooting up to $105 per barrel as talks between the U.S. and Iran showed little progress toward ending the war. There was also a big selloff in bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 15.2 basis points yesterday as investors demanded ever-greater risk premiums for holding U.S. government debt. It sat at 5.137% this morning. The yields on 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds are all now above 5%. Foreign government bonds <\/span>followed suit today<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ironically, strong data regarding purchasing manager expectations\u2014a macro metric <\/span>usually ignored by the market<\/span>\u2014convinced traders that future interest rate hikes from the Fed are more likely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the fall in bond prices was sudden, yields on bonds are not historically high. It\u2019s the <\/span>direction<\/span><\/i> they’re heading in, not the current price, that has investors worried.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFor Gen Z bond traders, a 0.15-percentage point rise in yields is scary. For Gen X bond traders, it is mild,\u201d UBS\u2019s Paul Donovan told clients this morning.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were down <\/span>0.6<\/span>% this morning. The index was down <\/span>0.75<\/span>% yesterday.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down <\/span>0.56<\/span>% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down <\/span>0.21<\/span>% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was closed today<\/span>. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was up <\/span>0.76<\/span>%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down <\/span>1.63<\/span>%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down <\/span>1.73<\/span>%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Brent crude<\/b> was $105 per barrel this morning, up from $99 yesterday.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/b> was at $<\/span>83,598.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    \"\"<\/div>\n

    Chart via CNBC.<\/em><\/p>\n

    CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    Revisions to the U.S. jobs number are usually negative<\/b><\/h2>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    On the first Friday of every new month, economists get very excited\u2014that\u2019s the day when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the new \u201cnonfarm payrolls\u201d number, which describes the number of new jobs the economy created in the previous month. There\u2019s only one problem with the number, as this chart from Pantheon Macroeconomics shows: It is usually wrong. As time goes by and late survey responses trickle in, the BLS revises the number, and the revisions usually cut jobs from the final number. (Revising the number over time is a normal part of the process\u2014the U.S. is a big place!)<\/span><\/p>\n

    NUMBER OF THE DAY:\u00a0<\/h3>\n

    20% less<\/b><\/h2>\n

    The reduction in Europe\u2019s total energy consumption compared to 20 years ago, <\/span>according to Marieke Blom of ING<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

    US and China extend trade truce as Trump welcomes Xi for summit<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

    Global debt tops $365 trillion as economists sound alarm over \u2018vicious cycle\u2019<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

    Judge Orders Trump to Lift Ban on CNN, MS NOW, Politico<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

    As Xi Visits Washington, Trump Plays Down China\u2019s Actions Against U.S. Interests<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

    Sinister network of Russian agents busted in Cold War-style plot to infiltrate the US Secret Service using American tech CEO<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n

    ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

    Dolly Parton\u2019s estate descends into litigation less than one month after her death<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Dolly Parton’s estate accused the country music icon\u2019s nephew of threatening to commit violence and destroy his aunt\u2019s legacy and business empire in court filings submitted Tuesday and asked a judge to keep him away from its employees and business dealings, <\/span>the AP reported<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Bryan Seaver owns a company that provided Parton\u2019s security detail and was handpicked by the star to announce her death from cancer last month. Seaver\u2019s messages have resulted in Parton\u2019s trusts and estates attorney leaving and employees of Parton\u2019s company She\u2019s Alive resigning, according to the court documents. The entity has also had to hire private security for its employees, including at their homes, the documents state.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The restraining order is meant to stop Seaver from talking with or being within 1,000 feet of She\u2019s Alive employees, attorneys, and business partners. It is also meant to keep him from interfering with its business relationships.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    #Kalshi #valuation #billionif #survive #Supreme #Court<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u27a1\ufe0f If you would like to receiv… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5303,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[8375,1467,800,515,516,456,977,166,850,381,4908,1807,4826],"class_list":["post-5302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-billionif","tag-court","tag-disney","tag-economics","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-iran","tag-kalshi","tag-markets","tag-meta","tag-news","tag-supreme","tag-survive","tag-valuation"],"yoast_head":"\nKalshi valuation could be $42 billion\u2014if it can survive the Supreme Court - Finance News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=5302\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kalshi valuation could be $42 billion\u2014if it can survive the Supreme Court - 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