{"id":6189,"date":"2026-10-07T11:25:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T11:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=6189"},"modified":"2026-10-07T11:25:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T11:25:56","slug":"ai-is-heading-into-a-cash-flow-negative-inflection-point-and-spending-will-slow-in-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=6189","title":{"rendered":"AI is heading into a cash-flow negative inflection point, and spending will slow in 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Mikel Arteta is known for strict discipline and for a management approach that follows the \u201caggregation of marginal gains\u201d rule. Each incremental improvement may seem insignificant, but together they make the difference between winning and losing, and in Arteta\u2019s world, there isn’t much of an alternative. As Bill Shankly, one of the all-time great managers in English football, once said: \u201cIf you are first, you are first. If you are second, you are nothing.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

For Arteta, health is a \u201cfoundational\u201d part of elite-level leadership. That is why he agreed to have his whole genome sequenced to better understand how his body works and potential future health risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arteta\u2014who had a serious heart condition when he was young\u2014said the test revealed an increased likelihood of celiac disease and a level of lactose intolerance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The McStruggle is real: McDonald\u2019s CEO Chris Kempczinski is fighting to revamp the dominant burger chain<\/b><\/h2>\n

The $5 Sausage McMuffin meal didn\u2019t do the trick. Neither did the mix-and-match deal that let customers choose, say, the Filet-O-Fish and Chicken McNuggets for $6. Growth has slowed. Customer visits have reportedly dropped. Wall Street has taken notice: McDonald\u2019s shares are now down 32% from an all-time high in February.<\/span><\/p>\n

CEO Chris Kempczinski has been trying to convince customers to return to the Golden Arches. But so far, the company\u2019s barrage of new meal deals and aggressive marketing to promote them have come up short.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s worse, some of its efforts to repair those downward trends have backfired, <\/span>Fortune\u2019s <\/span><\/i>Phil Wahba reports<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

The Future of Financial Advice ft. Penny Pennington<\/span> | Fortune Daily<\/span><\/p>\n

OpenAI\u2019s human rights lead: What the military could do with AI \u2018keeps me up at night\u2019<\/span> – Emily Forlini<\/span><\/p>\n

A $13 billion property mogul is the latest to flee Britain\u2019s new taxes for Monaco, a warning sign as California votes on a billionaire tax<\/span> – Sydney Lake<\/span><\/p>\n

Citi shortens its analyst program to two years as Wall Street fights private equity for young talent<\/span> – Sasha Rogelberg<\/span><\/p>\n

Patagonia\u2019s CEO is worried about political apathy\u2014so the company offered 112,000 people $100 to help 3 friends plan to vote<\/span> – Tatiana Sataua<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018AI Snake Oil\u2019 author sees chatbots evolving into a \u2018truth oracle\u2019\u2014and journalism heading somewhere it hasn\u2019t been in 200 years<\/span> – Nick Lichtenberg<\/span><\/p>\n

Retired Warren Buffett now spends his evenings glued to YouTube\u2014watching Glenn Close clips, 1950s commercials, and Uzbekistani talent shows<\/span> – Preston Fore<\/span><\/p>\n

SLOW AHEAD<\/h3>\n

AI is heading toward a cash flow negative inflection point, and spending will slow in 2027, Wall Street thinks<\/b><\/h2>\n

The AI industry is steaming toward an inflection point: The moment when the industry, as a whole, goes cash flow negative and the hyperscalers start slowing down their capex spending on data centers. This chart from Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia Business School shows \u201chow quickly this financing constraint is tightening,\u201d <\/span>he wrote in a recent paper<\/span>. \u201cOn current estimates, capex will surpass the five firms\u2019 [<\/span>Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet’s] combined operating cash flow for the first time in 2026.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201cInternal cash generation remains substantial, but it is no longer sufficient to finance the projected pace of investment without greater reliance on external capital or financing structures that shift assets and obligations away from the operating companies\u2019 balance sheets,\u201d he wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other analysts are already predicting that 2027 will be the year when AI capex starts to decelerate. \u201cWe expect the market will start thinking about a potential peak year in 2027 soon, likely after 3Q EPS and midterms,\u201d Wells Fargo\u2019s Ohsung Kwon told clients this week. \u201cMost investors now agree that AI capex will likely slow meaningfully in 2028.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The pace of spending simply can\u2019t be sustained, according to Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics. \u201cAI-linked investment probably will continue to grow very strongly, but hyperscaler capex growth looks set to moderate in 2027, while supply constraints and higher borrowing costs increasingly will bite,\u201d they said in a recent email.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAnalysts\u2019 forecasts for the five largest hyperscalers point to nominal capex rising at a materially slower pace in 2027 than in 2026,\u201d they said. \u201cEven so, the projected slowdown deserves attention. Supply-side constraints also are becoming a growing issue for the tech sector, with bottlenecks in the supply of advanced chips and electrical equipment, power grid capacity, and construction labor and materials increasingly biting.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Higher borrowing costs driven by rising yields on long-dated bonds will crimp the plans of firms already holding leverage, they said. But \u201cthey are unlikely to derail the buildout while financing remains readily available and the largest tech firms continue to expect exceptionally high returns from AI.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

Traders hit pause after the S&P 500\u2019s all-time high<\/b><\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 notched a new record high yesterday and traders seem to be using that as an opportunity to take profits today. Markets sold off marginally across Asia and Europe, and U.S. futures are down before the open in New York.<\/span><\/p>\n

French bonds had another relief rally over the last 24 hours. But this morning yields are climbing again: The 10-year OAT was at 4.88% at the time of writing.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were down <\/span>0.07<\/span>%<\/span> this morning. The index rose <\/span>0.58<\/span>% yesterday to a new record high at 7,818.93.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down <\/span>0.48<\/span>% in early trading, and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down <\/span>0.44<\/span>% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was down <\/span>1.98<\/span>%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down <\/span>0.92<\/span>%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down <\/span>0.84<\/span>%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was closed for a national holiday.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Brent crude<\/b> was $101 per barrel.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/b> was at $<\/span>83,721.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Dan Ives is back and\u2014you guessed it\u2014is bullish on tech stocks<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Dan Ives, the legendary tech bull who left Wedbush earlier this year, has resurfaced with his first research note from his new merchant bank, Yorkville Ives. Unsurprisingly, his first call is to be bullish on tech stocks\u201449 of them, to be exact.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cSupply, not demand, defines this phase of the AI Revolution cycle. We believe we are early days of this AI buildout and remain very bullish on prospects for the tech winners over the next few years. The infrastructure layer remains supply constrained through at least 2027,\u201d he and his colleagues advised. His top five picks are Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Apple, and CrowdStrike.<\/span><\/p>\n

    If France cannot solve its \u2018egregious\u2019 bond situation, the \u2018sell-off risks becoming self-fulfilling\u2019\u2014and Le Pen awaits her moment<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Investors are still trying to figure out how much financial trouble the French government is in. French bonds have sold off sharply in recent weeks, and yields on them are approaching record highs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    At Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar and Karina Mayer think the situation is \u201cegregious.\u201d \u201cPolitical uncertainty has prompted markets to finally blow the whistle on France\u2019s egregious fiscal stance, which has seen government spending and taxes exceed 50% of GDP for 35 years,\u201d they said in a recent note.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cFrance faces real structural fiscal and political issues which makes it challenging to see what can make the market turn,\u201d Peter Schaffrik and his colleagues at RBC said in an email seen by <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>. If the government passes its 2027 budget, it would deliver some consolidation in finances, he said. \u201cBut beyond next year, France would need to deliver a similar pace of consolidation for four further years to achieve a 3% budget deficit by 2030\u2014 a pace no French government has sustained in the modern era.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cThe [bond] sell-off risks becoming self-fulfilling. As spreads widen, refinancing costs rise, which widens the deficit further and justifies wider spreads still.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

    Waiting in the wings is Marine Le Pen and her hard-right National Rally party. Elections are expected in April of next year to succeed President Emmanuel Macron. Le Pen consistently polls at about a third of the vote\u2014enough to get her to the final round of voting and a plausible shot at the presidency. She is proposing harsh spending cuts to services for immigrants, the elimination of entire state agencies, public sector job attrition, and the abolition of more than 120 overlapping taxes, according to Macquarie\u2019s Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry. <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cLe Pen’s plan … is likely intended to be a message to bond traders that she is mindful of the burden of rising yields, and has the contours of a plan to address it,\u201d they told clients.<\/span><\/p>\n

    CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    Are you sick right now? It\u2019s most likely a common cold<\/b><\/h2>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    Most common viruses like the flu or Covid-19 are in decline right now, according to data from the CDC. Except for the common cold. For some reason, it\u2019s surging in the U.S. \u201cThis is higher than any rate since 2019 (last season on record on the CDC website). A fall [autumn] rise is expected, but this one is big,\u201d <\/span>according to epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina<\/span>, who writes a well-regarded Substack on disease.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cUnfortunately, there’s not much you can do for a cold, other than sleep, lots of water, and staying home while you\u2019re sick,\u201d she says.<\/span><\/p>\n

    NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    90% of mortgage holders<\/b><\/h2>\n

    The percentage of homeowners with mortgages whose interest rate is now below the current market average, 7.3%, thus discouraging them from moving. Mortgage rates have risen more than 1% since February, according to Goldman Sachs\u2019 Pierfrancesco Mei.<\/span><\/p>\n

    THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

    Oil rises as concerns over Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia eclipse supply recovery<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

    CDC: Monitoring Russian plague risk, “prepared” for any threat<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

    Inside Bessent\u2019s Treasury: Tension, Turnover and Unmet Economic Goals<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

    Iran Ramps Up Ship Attacks in Hormuz as Oil, Gas Flows Rise<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

    How the Houthis Triumphed on the Red Sea and Sparked a New War in Yemen<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

    Inside the Gaza terror tunnel Hamas used to launch one of the bloodiest Oct. 7 slaughters<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n

    ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

    The Singapore government has a new algorithm to get its employees breeding again<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Singapore\u2019s resident total fertility rate fell to 0.87 births per woman in 2025, well below the population replacement rate. <\/span>The government has decided to do something about it<\/span> by launching FirstDate, a dating site that matches government employees with each other.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    To avoid the pitfalls of apps like Tinder and Hinge\u2014where women are vastly outnumbered by men and are therefore overwhelmed by choice while men receive very few matches\u2014FirstDate uses a Nobel Prize-winning matching theory algorithm. Users fill in their details and attempt to match with other singles. But the algorithm only shows users mutual matches where neither of the two participants would prefer others over their assigned matches. Once users receive a match, they have 72 hours to decide whether or not to connect.<\/span><\/p>\n

    By limiting users\u2019 choices, and by only offering them choices where\u2014according to their own profiles\u2014there are no better partners, Singapore is hoping to improve the success rate of dating. \u201cSwipe fatigue ends here,\u201d the pilot program\u2019s website says.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    #heading #cashflow #negative #inflection #point #spending #slow<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Mikel Arteta is known for stri… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5479,9302,515,2337,516,1346,9267,9304,166,9303,381,160,2769,440,385],"class_list":["post-6189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-bond-yields","tag-cashflow","tag-economics","tag-england-soccer","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-france","tag-heading","tag-inflection","tag-markets","tag-negative","tag-news","tag-point","tag-slow","tag-spending","tag-tech"],"yoast_head":"\nAI is heading into a cash-flow negative inflection point, and spending will slow in 2027 - Finance News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=6189\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AI is heading into a cash-flow negative inflection point, and spending will slow in 2027 - 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