{"id":7054,"date":"2026-10-19T10:51:37","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T10:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7054"},"modified":"2026-10-19T10:51:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T10:51:37","slug":"how-the-rioting-in-france-might-trigger-a-blow-up-in-the-bond-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7054","title":{"rendered":"How the rioting in France might trigger a \u2018blow up\u2019 in the bond market"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

On Sept. 9, the six-member board of Automattic\u2014the company that owns WordPress, Tumblr, and other web-based apps\u2014voted to put its CEO, Matt Mullenweg, on leave. The move seemingly came out of the blue: Mullenweg had just returned from his annual trip to Burning Man, and the board was made up largely of directors who had mentored Mullenweg for years.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

And then, 33 hours later, Mullenweg was back in control, and the three directors who tried to sideline him were gone, along with the company\u2019s CFO and its chief legal officer.<\/span><\/p>\n

A remarkable level of secrecy surrounded the drama. None of the board members have publicly explained why they suddenly wanted him out of the company. Mullenweg has declined to describe why he was all but fired, or how he quickly got back control of the company. <\/span>But <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Eva Roytburg investigated and got the whole story<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

Can AI Save Tinder and the Dating App Industry?<\/span> – Fortune Video<\/span><\/p>\n

The inventor of BRICS has a message for \u2018lazy, colonial\u2019 Europe\u2014India and China are still not taken seriously enough on the world stage<\/span> – Kamal Ahmed<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Miami-Dade County is not Vice City\u2019: GTA 6 is taking over Miami\u2014and dividing the county<\/span> – Cordell Jones<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Circle back,\u2019 \u2018synergy,\u2019 \u2018boil the ocean\u2019: The corporate phrases Gen Z doesn\u2019t get, and what they say instead<\/span> – Sasha Tuddenham<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlassian\u2019s Mike Cannon-Brookes: AI agents need a name tag\u2014and a human to be accountable for their mistakes<\/span> – Angelica Ang<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018I\u2019ve never had a real job\u2019: Shaq talks building his brand through ads, and says he hates \u2018wealthy athletes\u2019 who show off. It \u2018makes me sick\u2019<\/span> – Catherina Gioino and Joshua Hong<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea bets on five regional airports to spread its tourism boom beyond Seoul<\/span> – Angelica Ang<\/span><\/p>\n

Zoom and big financial firms add \u2018Proof of Human\u2019 badges from Sam Altman\u2019s World to stop fraud and deep fakes – Jeff John Roberts<\/p>\n

China\u2019s economy grew 4.5% last quarter, yet its export boom risks being \u2018a drag on world growth\u2019<\/span> – The AP<\/span><\/p>\n

LA CONTAGION\u00a0<\/h3>\n

Putting a price on the \u201cblow up\u201d in France<\/b><\/h2>\n

French police <\/span>lost control of multiple cities in France<\/span> over the weekend, as demonstrators looted shops in Paris, stormed city hall in Marseille, burned down the city hall of Limoges, and torched the tourism office in Lyon. Thousands have been arrested. The rioters initially demanded more funding for education, but their protests morphed into a more general set of grievances. Many of them are waving Palestinian flags.<\/span><\/p>\n

Wall Street, meanwhile, is trying to price a scenario in which France doesn\u2019t get its act together, caves to the demands of the protesters for more spending, and worsens its national debt. So, \u201cwhat would a \u2018blow up\u2019 in France look like?\u201d, Macquarie\u2019s Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry asked in a note to clients. Here is what they think is on the cards:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. A \u201cgovernance breakdown\u201d maybe involving the dissolution of the National Assembly before the April election.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Credit rating agencies downgrade France\u2019s debt in November.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. \u201cWidening of street protests and violence.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. A further spike in French bond yields, possibly triggering contagion into other asset classes.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. And then, finally, \u201cthe election of a far-right populist administration, which sets off a more serious crisis of confidence in the state’s ability to enact legislation that will help bring fiscal austerity.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    They also produced this handy chart showing what will go up and what will go down on a disaster-by-disaster basis:<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    At Oxford Economics, Ricardo Amaro thinks that contagion would involve pulling both France and Italy into a recession. \u201cIf France suffered a fairly large increase in bond yields with some contagion to high-debt countries, the impact would be highly asymmetrical across the Eurozone. France and Italy would experience moderate recessions, while Spain, Portugal, and Greece would outperform,\u201d he said in a note. \u201cThe Eurozone would avoid a recession.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Live coverage<\/b> of the riots in France from the BBC <\/span>here<\/span>.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

      Buyers step in where angels fear to tread<\/b><\/h2>\n

      Stocks struggled globally today as the price of oil rose to $108 per barrel. Asia was mixed, while markets declined in Europe. U.S. futures were up this morning following a tech-led selloff on Friday. Nasdaq futures were up strongly before the open in New York\u2014suggesting that traders now believe last week\u2019s dumpster fire was overcooked.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201cThings are looking a lot cheerier than they were at the close on Friday. After yet another lurch lower for tech, buyers have once again appeared,\u201d Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG, told <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201cAmid all the doom-laden commentary we saw last week, it is easy to forget that the S&P 500 was at a record high just two weeks ago. Last week looks more like a healthy rotation than the beginning of something more dramatic, no matter how much many bearish types would wish it otherwise.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      Factoid:<\/b> Today is the 39th anniversary of Black Monday, when the Dow Jones fell 22.6% in a single day. Watch a great archive video of the TV evening news on that day <\/span>here<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were up <\/span>0.47%<\/span> this morning. The index fell <\/span>1.09<\/span>% on Friday.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
      • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down <\/span>0.78<\/span>% in early trading, and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down <\/span>0.87%<\/span> before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up <\/span>1.76%<\/span>. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down <\/span>0.62<\/span>%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down <\/span>1.19<\/span>%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was up <\/span>0.09<\/span>%<\/span>.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Brent crude<\/b> rose to $108 per barrel.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Bitcoin<\/b> was at $<\/span>82,769.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        More in-depth market coverage here.<\/b><\/p>\n

        CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

        Why the Fed\u2019s Warsh is being so patient with inflation\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/div>\n

        <\/span><\/p>\n

        Inflation was 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% the month before. But Fed chair Kevin Warsh gave no hints that he would hike interest rates to fight it at his IMF speech in Bangkok last week. Why is he so sanguine? After all, \u201cWarsh\u2019s favored gauge of price pressures, the share of components with an inflation rate north of 3%, is still very elevated,\u201d according to ING\u2019s James Smith. The gauge is faulty, Smith argues, and many of the inflationary factors are about to be eased out of the system, he said in a recent note.<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u201cThis measure is highly flawed. All it really tells us is that tariffs have boosted a lot of small goods categories,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThat effect should rapidly dissipate now that tariff refunds are flowing in after the Supreme Court decision earlier this year. There are other reasons for optimism, too. Rental costs, which make up a whopping 44% of the core inflation basket, should continue to gradually ease given the cool state of the U.S. housing market. Wage growth is down at 3%.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u201cIt\u2019s not difficult to see how inflation gets much closer to 2% by the second quarter of next year, when the energy story also starts to filter out of the annual comparison,\u201d he concluded. He forecasts that Warsh will hike only once more this year\u2014in December.<\/span><\/p>\n

        NUMBER OF THE DAY\u00a0<\/h3>\n

        13%<\/b><\/h2>\n

        The percentage of Microsoft\u2019s paying customers who use Copilot, the company\u2019s AI model. Microsoft has said it has 30 million paid Copilot seats, but data from AI measurement platform Larridin shows that most employees don\u2019t use it. Larridin found only 13% of Microsoft Office users accessed Copilot per week, and 75% didn’t access it for more than four weeks. By contrast, 70% used Excel and 78% used Outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/div>\n

        <\/span><\/p>\n

        THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

        Anthropic commits 5% of shares to \u2018public benefit\u2019 fund<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

        Putin reportedly suggests summit with Trump and Xi to decide fate of Ukraine<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

        Trump’s sinking approval leaves GOP candidates in a bind<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

        A Hedge-Fund Billionaire\u2019s Two Bitter Wars\u2014Against His Wife and His Business Partner<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

        AI Firm Nscale Faces Investor Pushback Over IPO Valuation<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

        O.J. Simpson, a Secret Informant and a Decades-Old Mystery<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

        Box Office: \u2018You Can See Everything\u2019 Stuns With $15 Million Debut, \u2018Street Fighter\u2019 Leads With $31 Million<\/span> – Variety<\/span><\/p>\n

        ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

        Despite making over $200,000 a year, many NFL referees still hold full-time jobs as attorneys, aerospace engineers, and college professors<\/b><\/h2>\n

        From August to January, NFL officials travel weekly across the country\u2014and sometimes abroad\u2014to oversee some of the world\u2019s most-watched sporting events. But when the final whistle blows, another job is often waiting for them the next morning, <\/span>Preston Fore reports<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Many of the NFL\u2019s 121 officials hold full-time jobs outside football: Clete Blakeman is a personal injury attorney in Nebraska, Brad Rogers is a senior lecturer at Texas Tech University\u2019s business school, and Shawn Hochuli is a California-based financial advisor.<\/span><\/p>\n

        But these aren\u2019t just side hustles to supplement their NFL paychecks. Referees earned an average of $205,000 a year in 2025, on top of a reported 10% increase in per-game pay in 2026. Many officials built careers in other fields before reaching the NFL\u2014and continue to pursue them alongside football.<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        • Would you like to sponsor this newsletter? Contact <\/span><\/i>advertising@fortune.com<\/span><\/i> for details.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n
        • \n

          \u27a1\ufe0f <\/b>If you would like to receive this information in your inbox every morning before the markets open in New York, <\/span>sign up here<\/b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

          #rioting #France #trigger #blow #bond #market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          On Sept. 9, the six-member boa… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[8096,2530,515,516,1346,456,33,166,381,10167,1826],"class_list":["post-7054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-blow","tag-bond","tag-economics","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-france","tag-iran","tag-market","tag-markets","tag-news","tag-rioting","tag-trigger"],"yoast_head":"\nHow the rioting in France might trigger a \u2018blow up\u2019 in the bond market - Finance News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7054\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How the rioting in France might trigger a \u2018blow up\u2019 in the bond market - 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