{"id":7698,"date":"2026-10-28T02:27:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T02:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698"},"modified":"2026-10-28T02:27:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T02:27:14","slug":"top-data-scientist-predicts-that-democrats-will-flip-5-seats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698","title":{"rendered":"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

This writer has been carefully following the Senate race forecasts on Virtualtout.io, a predictions site developed by Thomas Miller, a data scientist and professor at Northwestern University. The Miller approach first captured my attention when, in January of 2021, his model posited that, contrary to the polling, Democrats would win both of the two Senate races in Georgia. Miller scored again by calling for a Trump triumph in 2024.<\/p>\n

\n

Miller\u2019s template for the current Senate contests once again starts with the \u201cprices\u201d posted on betting sites. He relies on the two platforms that host the most trading, Kalshi and Polymarket. Miller calibrates the prices from both sources so that they reflect percentage probabilities of victory or defeat in each of the 35 races.<\/p>\n

He then uses multiple time series analysis that adjusts for \u201cunderlying factors\u201d that tend to drive all the election \u201cmarkets.\u201d The overriding force by far, he says, is what Donald Trump just did or said. \u201cThe states don\u2019t move independently of one another,\u201d he told me. \u201cIf Trump does something voters don\u2019t like, you\u2019ll see the Republican numbers drop in all the states.\u201d<\/p>\n

On Virtualtout.io, a live \u201cticker tape\u201d for all 35 races runs across the top of the screen. It shows the odds of a Democratic or a Republican win, updated every 10 minutes, and also shows the change over the past 24 hours. Naturally, his data is far more current than the polling, which often reflects voters\u2019 preferences several days or more before the day they\u2019re posted.<\/p>\n

Keep in mind that Miller\u2019s numbers are a snapshot of today\u2019s probabilities, and not a prediction of what will happen on Nov. 3. But his data does show the Democrats in a strong position, as of now, to flip seats in five states, an outcome that would radically change the count from today\u2019s 53-47 in favor of the GOP to 52-48 for the Democrats.<\/p>\n

Virtualtout went live on Oct. 23, but Miller collected numbers starting on Sept. 17. On that date, his models showed a 34.8% chance the Republicans would keep control. As of early morning, Oct. 26, that number had dropped to 23.3%.<\/p>\n

The Republican side, however, is doing a bit better; its odds have risen two points from an \u201call time\u201d low of 21.3% on Oct. 24. It\u2019s interesting to examine the interplay among the races, which show somewhat better chances for the Republicans than previous numbers in three states (Texas, Maine, and also Michigan, a seat the Republicans had hoped to flip, but still favors Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed).<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start where the GOP chances look remote and haven\u2019t brightened. North Carolina\u2019s dead: Miller\u2019s model gives the Republicans a 4.5% chance of winning. Ohio was a near toss-up six weeks ago. Now, incumbent Jon Husted\u2019s got only a 32.5% shot versus Sherrod Brown. Alaska is also looking dim. The GOP\u2019s chances opened Miller\u2019s derby at 33% and now stand at 24.8%.<\/p>\n

Texas also started as near-even before the Republican odds began to fall. But in recent days they\u2019ve improved, rising from 34.2% on Oct. 24 to 36.4% on Oct. 26. The outlook in Maine has also improved a bit for the Republicans, going from 32% for Republican Susan Collins on Sept. 17 to today\u2019s 37.9%.<\/p>\n

And in Michigan, the GOP\u2019s odds dropped to a low of 26.4% on Oct. 5, but have risen to nearly 34%.<\/p>\n

Miller\u2019s numbers are highly fluid, and the Republicans in his model still harbor roughly one-in-three or better chances of winning in four states. So it\u2019s by no means a done deal for the Dems. The slightly higher numbers for Republicans could mark a trend. An election that looked lacking in suspense could show plenty in the closing days.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

#Top #data #scientist #predicts #Democrats #flip #seats<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This writer has been carefully… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[768,541,2524,273,1018,10727,3941,7061,6574,187,2211],"class_list":["post-7698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-american-politics","tag-data","tag-democrats","tag-donald-trump","tag-elections","tag-flip","tag-predicts","tag-scientist","tag-seats","tag-top","tag-u-s-senate"],"yoast_head":"\nTop data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats - Finance News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats - Finance News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This writer has been carefully…\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Finance News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-28T02:27:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg?w=2048\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ed40724a3e5d482ce66781a042c3c31e\"},\"headline\":\"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-28T02:27:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698\"},\"wordCount\":630,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"American Politics\",\"data\",\"Democrats\",\"Donald Trump\",\"elections\",\"flip\",\"predicts\",\"scientist\",\"seats\",\"top\",\"U.S. Senate\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Finance News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698\",\"name\":\"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats - Finance News\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-28T02:27:14+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ed40724a3e5d482ce66781a042c3c31e\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":600},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?p=7698#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"\u9996\u9875\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/\",\"name\":\"Finance News\",\"description\":\"Just another Finance News site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ed40724a3e5d482ce66781a042c3c31e\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vaultinsider.top\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats - Finance News","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats - Finance News","og_description":"This writer has been carefully…","og_url":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698","og_site_name":"Finance News","article_published_time":"2026-10-28T02:27:14+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg?w=2048","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"\u4f5c\u8005":"admin","\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4":"3 \u5206"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/#\/schema\/person\/ed40724a3e5d482ce66781a042c3c31e"},"headline":"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats","datePublished":"2026-10-28T02:27:14+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698"},"wordCount":630,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg","keywords":["American Politics","data","Democrats","Donald Trump","elections","flip","predicts","scientist","seats","top","U.S. Senate"],"articleSection":["Finance News"],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698","url":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698","name":"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats - Finance News","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg","datePublished":"2026-10-28T02:27:14+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/#\/schema\/person\/ed40724a3e5d482ce66781a042c3c31e"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2300369122.jpg","width":1200,"height":600},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?p=7698#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"\u9996\u9875","item":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Top data scientist predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/","name":"Finance News","description":"Just another Finance News site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/#\/schema\/person\/ed40724a3e5d482ce66781a042c3c31e","name":"admin","url":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7698"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7698\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vaultinsider.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}