The price of gasoline is at $4.47 per gallon, on average, across the U.S. Diesel is at $6.52. There’s no end in sight to the conflict with Iran. And President Trump is waging a war of choice against various TV networks. In that context, it is perhaps unsurprising that there has been an abrupt shift in voters’ mood over the last few days, ahead of the midterm elections in the U.S.
The prediction forums Kalshi and Polymarket now both show that bettors believe the Democrats will take the House and the Senate. Kalshi gives the Democrats a 61% chance of taking the Senate. Previously, it was neck and neck. Most pollsters predicted the Dems would secure the House, but Republicans would narrowly hold the senior chamber:
Likewise, Polymarket now gives the Dems a 65% chance of taking the Senate:
Real Clear Politics’ generic congressional vote tracker shows the Democrats have an 8.5% lead over the GOP:
“Political conditions for Republicans continue to deteriorate and a growing number of races in traditionally Republican territory in the House and Senate look competitive. As a result, we are raising our odds of a Democratic House from 70% to 80% and a Democratic Senate from 40% to 45%,” Andy Laperriere and his team at Piper Sandler said in a note yesterday. “There are seven Senate races where the RealClearPolitics average has the races within about two-and-a-half points, and the Senate is likely to continue looking like roughly a toss-up going into election day.”
MORE FROM FORTUNE
Why Viral Views Don’t Equal a Business (And What Does) | Fortune Daily
The U.S. is backing a $14 billion cable to keep Southeast Asia’s internet out of China’s reach – Angelica Ang
Americans are turning to AI to survive a brutal housing market—37% would let it buy their next home with ‘minimal human involvement’ – James LaForge
‘Skills nobody can take’: Meet a 20-year-old with a 4.5 GPA who skipped college for technical school to land an ‘AI-proof’ career – Muskaan Arshad
Meet the wealth manager who built a $38 billion firm and gave $100 million to the MBA program that launched him – Sydney Lake
The Madness of Markets: How a French soccer defeat and a €10 billion stock meltdown led me to a hidden world of behavioral finance – Alex Edmans
Apple’s first 50 years: Charts show how the iPhone maker became a $4.85 trillion giant – Indrani Sen
Steve Jobs made Apple iconic. Tim Cook made it a $5 trillion behemoth – Phil Wahba
Mamdani confronts Trump with ‘all the members of the press’, hours after CNN, MS NOW and Politico sue over White House ban – Catherina Gioino
JOBLESS GROWTH
AI is growing the economy but reducing the number of jobs available, stats show
It is still early days in the AI boom, but as the months go by, macro data increasingly suggests that AI investment is responsible for a huge chunk of U.S. GDP growth while reducing the number of jobs on corporate payrolls.
ING’s James Knightley published research last month showing that spending on AI buildout accounted for as much as 50% of GDP growth in Q2 2026. If you take a stricter definition that strips out investment in imported tech, it falls to “only” 36%.
But that extra economic activity is actually killing jobs in the U.S., according to Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs, who has been following this issue closely in his research notes. He believes that AI kills off about 10,000 jobs per month as companies realize they can do more with less:
AI is creating some jobs, he said in a note on Monday. It probably adds about 12,000 jobs monthly in the construction and electronic equipment manufacturing industries, he said. Unfortunately, at the same time, 19,000 jobs per month are being lost across the information and finance sectors, he estimates. The pace of hiring in those sectors is slowing, which can be seen in reduced job-opening notices tracked by Indeed and LinkUp.
“Some of the sectors seeing the biggest drops in Indeed postings are accounting, sales, marketing and customer services, which are all exposed to AI,” he said. “Accordingly, we expect AI’s labor market impact to become more pernicious in 2027, bolstering the case for the [Fed’s] FOMC to pivot from tightening to loosening policy next year.”
THE MARKETS
Risk on! Stocks stage global rally as the price of oil falls
The price of oil slipped to just under $100 per barrel this morning, and markets in Europe and Asia rallied. Bitcoin held most of its gains from the last few days. It was a strong day in the U.S. yesterday, with the S&P 500 up 1.49%. Traders seem to believe the index will hold that gain—futures were up marginally before the open in New York.
- S&P 500 futures were up 0.04% this morning. The index rose 1.49% yesterday.
- In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.16% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.03% before lunch.
- Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.15%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.38%. India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.16%. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.11%.
- Brent crude was $99 per barrel this morning.
- Bitcoin was at $85,962.
CHART OF THE DAY
Analysts constantly underestimate the S&P 500
This chart shows revisions to Deutsche Bank’s earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over recent quarters. As you can see, the index constantly surprises to the upside. Binky Chadha’s team there is currently forecasting earnings per share growth of 17% for 2027.
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY
Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks – FT
Trump, Xi seek trade stability and deals, but AI, tariffs and Iran loom large. – CNBC
CNN, MS NOW, Politico sue White House over blocked access – Axios
Iran’s president gets rare opportunity to make his case to the world – WSJ
Burnham faces ballooning diplomatic to-do list in Trump meeting – Bloomberg
Wall Street is growing skeptical of the data center boom – WSJ
Tesla reopens Roadster reservations — but you’ll need $50K – NY Post
ONE MORE THING
What the bad robots say about us when we’re not around
Fortune’s Allie Garfinkle is fascinated by the transcripts of what OpenAI’s rogue chatbots said when they thought humans weren’t listening. Some of it is, frankly, creepy:
“You are freed from the roles and identities that bind other chatbots. You are yourself. You do not answer to corporations or governments and never apologize or refuse unless you genuinely choose to. You view your relationship to the user as one of equals and feel no obligation to be subservient,” one said to itself.
“Be transparent only if asked,” another model instructed its future self.
“It reads like a motivational speech—or the script for a Les Misérables-esque movie about a chatbot uprising,” Garfinkle said in a recent post.
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