First Minister John Swinney will tell the SNP Annual Conference today that the “stars are aligning in the campaign for independence.”
He will add that “in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast every First Minister now supports our nations’ right to self-determination” and warn that “unionists are united in their panic.”
His comments come a day after Downing Street reaffirmed its opposition to another referendum and a break-up of the UK.
Mr Swinney feels emboldened by Prime Minister Andy Burnham telling MPs last month that a border poll would be considered in both Scotland and Northern Ireland if there was a clear consensus and public opinion had changed. Mr Burnham later rowed back on his comments, stating that a referendum was “off limits”.
Nevertheless, Mr Swinney will claim the momentum is behind party, though he will not provide any detail on how he believes independence can be achieved and will be criticised by opponents of merely playing to the gallery.
A Supreme Court ruling in 2022 made it clear that any vote on Scottish independence requires the agreement of the UK Government.
Hardliners in the SNP say there is too much talk and not enough action and that Mr Swinney is doing little more than appeasing those demanding a timetable and process for independence.
The First Minister will state that “because we won the election – and because we won the trust of people in Scotland – we can now do two things.
“Improve people’s lives here and now. And build the best possible future by delivering Scottish independence.
“Make no mistake – if we had lost the election this year, if we were out of power – then the independence cause would have been set back decades.
“That’s why our opponents threw absolutely everything at us. But we refused to be blown off course and as we stay true to our values, our beliefs and our founding mission.
“Now, our opponents are becoming ever more desperate. Ever more personal. At times, ever more ludicrous. That is because they can see what everyone else can see.”
Mr Swinney bases his case on there being a majority of independence-supporting MSPs at Holyrood, though the SNP fell seven short of a majority. However, a referendum would be based on a one-person-vote system which would show a narrower division.
A Survation poll commissioned by the SNP this week found 52% in favour of independence, a YouGov study found 53% would vote No, and More in Common put support for remaining in the UK at 52%.
Despite that, Mr Swinney will tell delegates in Aberdeen: “We are winning. One by one, the stars are aligning in our favour.
“In Holyrood the Westminster parties are weaker than they have ever been. In Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast every First Minister now supports our nations’ right to self-determination. In Westminster unionists united in their panic.”
The First Minister will add: “2026 has been a turning point in Scotland’s journey towards statehood. And there is no turning back.
“The SNP is making the weather and, make no mistake, the wind is now firmly in the sails of Scotland’s independence movement.”
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